Election cycles, party ideology and incumbent popularity: theory and evidence for OECD economies
AbstractThe paper presents a rational political business cycle model where voters are imperfectly informed about both incumbent competence and incumbent preferences. The model predicts that election cycles on real variables are observed mainly when the incumbent is right-wing and unpopular. The model is put to test on a data set comprising 56 elections in eight OECD countries. Opinion poll series have been collected for each election campaign to compute estimates of the government's re-election chances. The results are broadly consistent with the theoretical model: there is evidence of abnormal pre-election decreases in unemployment and increases in output when right parties hold office and re-election prospects are poor but otherwise not.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology in its series Working Paper Series with number 7906.
Length: 53 pages
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2006
Date of revision:
Election cycles; Asymmetric information; Government popularity.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marit Balstad Jensen) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Marit Balstad Jensen to update the entry or send us the correct address.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.