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Consumer Confidence Indices And Short-Term Forecasting Of Consumption

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Author Info
Ali Al-Eyd ()
Ray Barrell ()
E. Philip Davis ()

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Abstract

Recently there has been growing interest in examining the potential short-term link between survey-based confidence indicators and real economic activity, notably for macroeconomic policy making. This paper builds on previous studies to establish whether there is a short-term predictive relationship between measures of consumer confidence and actual consumption, which could be used for forecasting, in a range of major industrial countries. It then extends such previous analyses by assessing whether this relation has changed over time, and whether we can attribute any time-varying relation to structural developments in the economy, such as financial deepening and the increasing role of house prices in determination of consumption.

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Paper provided by National Institute of Economic and Social Research in its series NIESR Discussion Papers with number 304.

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Date of creation: Feb 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:304

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This page was last updated on 2008-11-16.


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