Consumer Confidence Indices And Short-Term Forecasting Of Consumption
AbstractRecently there has been growing interest in examining the potential short-term link between survey-based confidence indicators and real economic activity, notably for macroeconomic policy making. This paper builds on previous studies to establish whether there is a short-term predictive relationship between measures of consumer confidence and actual consumption, which could be used for forecasting, in a range of major industrial countries. It then extends such previous analyses by assessing whether this relation has changed over time, and whether we can attribute any time-varying relation to structural developments in the economy, such as financial deepening and the increasing role of house prices in determination of consumption.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Institute of Economic and Social Research in its series NIESR Discussion Papers with number 304.
Date of creation: Feb 2008
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Other versions of this item:
- Ali Al-Eyd & Ray Barrell & E. Philip Davis, 2009. "Consumer Confidence Indices And Short-Term Forecasting Of Consumption," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(1), pages 96-111, 01.
- NEP-ALL-2008-08-31 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2008-08-31 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2008-08-31 (Macroeconomics)
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