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Consumer Confidence Indices And Short-Term Forecasting Of Consumption

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  • Ali Al-Eyd

    ()

  • Ray Barrell

    ()

  • E. Philip Davis

    ()

Abstract

Recently there has been growing interest in examining the potential short-term link between survey-based confidence indicators and real economic activity, notably for macroeconomic policy making. This paper builds on previous studies to establish whether there is a short-term predictive relationship between measures of consumer confidence and actual consumption, which could be used for forecasting, in a range of major industrial countries. It then extends such previous analyses by assessing whether this relation has changed over time, and whether we can attribute any time-varying relation to structural developments in the economy, such as financial deepening and the increasing role of house prices in determination of consumption.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Institute of Economic and Social Research in its series NIESR Discussion Papers with number 304.

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Date of creation: Feb 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:304

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Cited by:
  1. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2011. "Global Integration of Central and Eastern European Financial Markets—The Role of Economic Sentiments," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 137-157, 02.
  2. Bruno, Giancarlo, 2012. "Consumer confidence and consumption forecast: a non-parametric approach," MPRA Paper 41312, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Emrah İ. Çevik & Turhan Korkmaz & Erdal Atukeren, 2012. "Business confidence and stock returns in the USA: a time-varying Markov regime-switching model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 299-312, February.
  4. Roman Horvath, 2012. "Do Confidence Indicators Help Predict Economic Activity? The Case of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(5), pages 398-412, November.
  5. Dudek, Sławomir, 2008. "Consumer Survey Data and short-term forecasting of households consumption expenditures in Poland," MPRA Paper 19818, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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