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Jackknife Model Averaging of the Current Account Determinants

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  • Milan Nedeljkovic

    (National Bank of Serbia)

  • Branko Uroševic

    (National Bank of Serbia)

  • Emir Zildžovic

    (National Bank of Serbia)

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    Abstract

    This paper investigates the short to medium-term empirical relationships between the current account balances and a broad set of macroeconomic determinants in Serbia and selected CEE countries. Using novel model averaging techniques we focus the analysis to individual country’s data only. The results suggest that the model tracks the current account movements over the past decade quite well and captures its relative volatility. Signs and magnitudes of different coefficients indicate significant heterogeneity among countries providing empirical support for the country-level analysis.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Bank of Serbia in its series Working papers with number 23.

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    Length: 18 pages
    Date of creation: Jul 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:nsb:wpaper:23

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    Postal: National Bank of Serbia, 12 Kralja Petra St, 11 000 Belgrade, Republic of Serbia
    Phone: 381-11/3248-841
    Fax: 381-11/3234-120
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    Web page: http://www.nbs.rs
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    Related research

    Keywords: Current account; Model averaging; Transition countries;

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    References

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    1. Jordi Prat & Leandro Medina & Alun H. Thomas, 2010. "Current Account Balance Estimates for Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 10/43, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    3. Jesmin Rahman, 2008. "Current Account Developments in New Member States of the European Union," IMF Working Papers 08/92, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Glick, Reuven & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 159-192, February.
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    15. César Calderón & Alberto Chong & Luisa Zanforlin, 2007. "Current Account Deficits in Africa: Stylized Facts and Basic Determinants," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 191-221.
    16. Sheffrin, Steven M. & Woo, Wing Thye, 1990. "Present value tests of an intertemporal model of the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 237-253, November.
    17. Bussière, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Current Account Dynamics in OECD Countries and in the New EU Member States: An Intertemporal Approach," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 21, pages 593-618.
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    19. Yang Y., 2001. "Adaptive Regression by Mixing," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 574-588, June.
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