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Time-series properties of state-level public expenditure

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  • Rajaraman, Indira

    ()
    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

  • Mukhopadhyaya, Hiranya

    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

  • Rao, Kavita R.

    ()
    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

Abstract

Public expenditure reform must be underpinned by some understanding of the time-series properties of public expenditure. This paper examines the univariate properties of aggregate revenue expenditure at the level of State governments in India over the period 1974-98 for three states: Punjab, Haryana and Maharashtra. The empirical exercise is performed on the logarithmic transformation of aggregate revenue expenditure in terms of nominal (rather than ex post real) expenditure, not normalised to State Domestic Product, for reasons justified in the paper, and is confined to the aggregate for lack of a breakdown of the series by economic classification. The data are adjusted for notional entries and other distortionary budgetary practices. There is trend stationarity in Punjab and Haryana, with a deterministic trend growth rate of 16-17 per cent, and clear evidence thereby of fiscal smoothing in the presence of periodic upward shocks of Pay Commission or other origin. In Maharashtra by contrast, aggregate expenditure carries a unit root, with no deterministic trend, and no drift term; expenditure shocks of other than Pay Commission origin appear to have been enabled with no corresponding smoothing, but there is sharp and concurrent smoothing at the time of the Pay Commission shocks, such that aggregate expenditure does not show a spike. The issue of whether the fiscal smoothing in each case was unproductive or productive remains unrevealed in the aggregate figures.

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File URL: http://www.nipfp.org.in/working_paper/dp01_nipfp_004.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Institute of Public Finance and Policy in its series Working Papers with number 02/4.

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Length: 26
Date of creation: Jan 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:npf:wpaper:02/4

Note: Discussion Paper 4, 2001
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Web page: http://www.nipfp.org.in

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  1. Oxley, Les, 1994. "Cointegration, Causality and Wagner's Law: A Test for Britain 1870-1913," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(3), pages 286-98, August.
  2. M. I. Ansari & D. V. Gordon & C. Akuamoah, 1997. "Keynes versus Wagner: public expenditure and national income for three African countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 543-550.
  3. Bohl, Martin T, 1996. "Some International Evidence on Wagner's Law," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 51(2), pages 185-200.
  4. Murthy, N R Vasudeva, 1993. "Further Evidence of Wagner's Law for Mexico: An Application of Cointegration Analysis," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 48(1), pages 92-96.
  5. Michael Chletsos & Christos Kollias, 1997. "Testing Wagner's law using disaggregated public expenditure data in the case of Greece: 1958-93," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 371-377.
  6. Ashworth, John, 1995. "The Empirical Relationship between Budgetary Deficits and Government Expenditure Growth: An Examination Using Cointegration," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 50(1), pages 1-18.
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