Fiscal Dynamics in Ethiopia: A Cointegrated VAR Model with Quarterly Data
AbstractThis paper uses the cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR) model to assess the dynamic relationship between foreign aid inflows, public expenditure, revenue and domestic borrowing in Ethiopia. It departs from the existing literature by using a unique quarterly fiscal dataset (1993-2008) and providing new insights into the formulation of testable fiscal hypotheses. The paper also derives and interprets structural shocks and places a strong focus on model specification. The results suggest the presence of three long-run relationships: the government budget constraint, a donor disbursement rule, and a financing trade-off. Foreign aid grants adjust to the level of development spending, which can be seen as an indication of (procyclical) aid conditionality. Moreover, domestic borrowing often compensates for lower levels of revenue and grants, highlighting the cost of aid unpredictability and revenue volatility. The policy implication is that if foreign aid flows are to be made more effective, they should be provided in a predictable and countercyclical fashion in order to smooth exogenous shocks.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Nottingham, CREDIT in its series Discussion Papers with number 10/05.
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: School of Economics University of Nottingham University Park Nottingham NG7 2RD
Phone: (44) 0115 951 5620
Fax: (0115) 951 4159
Web page: http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/economics/
More information through EDIRC
Fiscal Response; Foreign Aid; Time Series Models; Africa.;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Osei, Robert & Morrissey, Oliver & Lloyd, Tim, 2005.
"The Fiscal Effects of Aid in Ghana,"
Working Paper Series
RP2005/61, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Svend Hylleberg, 2006. "Seasonal Adjustment," Economics Working Papers 2006-04, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Johansen, S., 1999.
"A Small Sample Correction for Tests of Hypotheses on the Cointegrating Vectors,"
Economics Working Papers
eco99/9, European University Institute.
- Johansen, Soren, 2002. "A small sample correction for tests of hypotheses on the cointegrating vectors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 195-221, December.
- Mumtaz Hussain & Andrew Berg & Shekhar Aiyar, 2009.
"The Macroeconomic Management of Increased Aid: Policy Lessons from Recent Experience,"
Review of Development Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(s1), pages 491-509, 08.
- Aiyar, Shekhar & Berg, Andrew & Hussain, Mumtaz, 2008. "The Macroeconomic Management of Increased Aid: Policy Lessons from Recent Experience," Working Paper Series RP2008/79, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Heller, Peter S, 1975. "A Model of Public Fiscal Behavior in Developing Countries: Aid, Investment, and Taxation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 429-45, June.
- Ndulu,Benno J. & O'Connell,Stephen A. & Bates,Robert H. & Collier,Paul & Soludo,Chukwuma C., 2009. "The Political Economy of Economic Growth in Africa, 1960–2000," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521127752, October.
- Peter Kennedy, 2003. "A Guide to Econometrics, 5th Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 5, volume 1, number 026261183x, June.
- Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
- Uwe Hassler & Matei Demetrescu, 2005. "Spurious Persistence and Unit Roots due to Seasonal Differencing: The Case of Inflation Rates," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 225(4), pages 413-426, July.
- Mosley, Paul & Hudson, John & Horrell, Sara, 1987. "Aid, the Public Sector and the Market in Less Developed Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(387), pages 616-41, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Hilary Hughes).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.