Income Shocks, Mortgage Repayment Risk and Financial Distress Among UK Households
AbstractThis paper examines the prevalence of mortgage arrears in the U.K using the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS). The majority of reported problems occur in the first few years after purchase. Episodes of unemployment, long-term sickness or relationship breakdown all predict repayment difficulties, as well as measures of leverage and income gearing at the point of origination. Using proxy measures for unemployment risk, ill-health risk and separation risk at the time of purchase, constructed from a variety of instruments, repayment difficulties are shown to be strongly correlated with ex ante repayment risk. This result raises questions about the efficiency of the mortgage lending process and the possibility that a significant proportion of mortgage arrears and defaults could be prevented by improved screening of repayment risk at the time of application.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM) in its series Discussion Papers with number 09/03.
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: School of Economics University of Nottingham University Park Nottingham NG7 2RD
Phone: (44) 0115 951 5620
Fax: (0115) 951 4159
Web page: http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/cfcm/index.aspx
More information through EDIRC
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2010.
"Modelling and Forecasting UK Mortgage Arrears and Possessions,"
Economics Series Working Papers
499, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2010. "Modelling and Forecasting UK Mortgage Arrears and Possessions," SERC Discussion Papers 0052, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
- Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2010. "Modelling and Forecasting UK Mortgage Arrears and Possessions," CEPR Discussion Papers 7986, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Gerardi, Kristopher & Herkenhoff, Kyle F. & Ohanian, Lee E. & Willen, Paul S., 2013. "Unemployment, negative equity, and strategic default," Working Paper 2013-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Hilary Hughes).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.