Kondratieff Waves in the World System Perspective
AbstractThe analysis of long economic cycles allows us to understand long-term world-system dynamics, to develop forecasts, to explain crises of the past, as well as the current global economic crisis. The article offers an historical sketch of research on K-waves; it analyzes the nature of Kondratieff waves that are considered as a special form of cyclical dynamics that emerged in the industrial period of the World System history. It offers a historical and theoretical analysis of K-wave dynamics in the World System framework; in particular, it studies the influence of the long wave dynamics on the changes of the world GDP growth rates during the last two centuries. Special attention is paid to the interaction between Kondratieff waves and Juglar cycles. The article is based on substantial statistical data, it extensively employs quantitative analysis, contains numerous tables and diagrams. On the basis of the proposed analysis it offers some forecasts of the world economic development in the next two decades.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Socionet in its series Macroeconomics with number emanova_elena.12760-kondratieffworldsyst.
Date of creation: 28 Feb 2013
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economic cycles; world system; Kondratieff waves; Juglar cycles;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- B1 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925
- E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
- E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
- N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-06-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2013-06-09 (Forecasting)
- NEP-HIS-2013-06-09 (Business, Economic & Financial History)
- NEP-HPE-2013-06-09 (History & Philosophy of Economics)
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- Tausch, Arno, 2013. "The hallmarks of crisis. A new center-periphery perspective on long cycles," MPRA Paper 48356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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