Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Exchange Rate Pass-Through in ASEAN: Implications for the Prospects of Monetary Integration in the Region

Contents:

Author Info

Abstract

This paper investigates, for the first time, the degree of exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices in all five founding members of ASEAN. For this purpose, a three variable recursive VAR model was applied which uses the Choleski decomposition method along the distribution chain of pricing, using data for the period 1968 to 2001. The results show that a strong case for entering a currency union can only be made for the cases of Singapore and Malaysia as in these countries there appears to be a case of exchange rate disconnect. A case for a common currency can also be made for Indonesia but for entirely different reasons. For this country, an independent monetary policy is a clear source of shocks to the economy and therefore a currency union would tend to eliminate then. A weaker case for a common currency can be made for the Philippines as evidence of some exchange rate pass-through to inflation was found but not to import prices. Finally, Thailand exhibits a clear case of exchange rate pass-through to import prices (but not to inflation) and thus evidence that a flexible exchange rate might be preferable as it provides the means to improve the country’s price competitiveness.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/docs/2007/NIPE_WP_2_2007.PDF
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by NIPE - Universidade do Minho in its series NIPE Working Papers with number 2/2007.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:2/2007

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas, Escola de Economia e Gestão, Universidade do Minho, P-4710-057 Braga, Portugal
Phone: +351-253604510 ext 5532
Fax: +351-253601380
Email:
Web page: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/versao_inglesa/index_uk.htm
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:

Related research

Keywords: Exchange Rate Pass-Through; Monetary Integration; Asean;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. An, Lian, 2006. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through:Evidence Based on Vector Autoregression with Sign Restrictions," MPRA Paper 527, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1996. "Operationalizing the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," CEPR Discussion Papers 1484, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Barhoumi, Karim, 2006. "Differences in long run exchange rate pass-through into import prices in developing countries: An empirical investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 926-951, December.
  5. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2000. "Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revisited: Price Setting and Exchange Rate Flexibility," Working Papers 042000, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  6. Rogers, John H. & Jenkins, Michael, 1995. "Haircuts or hysteresis? Sources of movements in real exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 339-360, May.
  7. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
  8. Takatoshi Ito & Kiyotaka Sato, 2006. "Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post-Crisis Asian Economies: VAR Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through," NBER Working Papers 12395, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry & Mauro, Paolo, 2000. "On Regional Monetary Arrangements For ASEAN," CEPR Discussion Papers 2411, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Engel, Charles M & Rose, Andrew K, 2001. "Currency Unions and International Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 2659, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Webber, A., 1999. "Dynamic and Long Run Responses of Import Prices to the Exchange Rate in the Asia-Pacific," Economics Working Papers WP99-11, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
  12. Paolo Mauro & Tamim Bayoumi, 1999. "The Suitability of AsEAN for a Regional Currency Arrangement," IMF Working Papers 99/162, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," CEPR Discussion Papers 1473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Maurice Obstfeld, 2006. "Pricing-to-Market, the Interest-Rate Rule, and the Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 12699, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Hahn, Elke, 2003. "Pass-through of external shocks to euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 0243, European Central Bank.
  16. Ida Wolden Bache, 2006. "Assessing the structural VAR approach to exchange rate pass-through," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 309, Society for Computational Economics.
  17. Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Faruqee, Hamid & Hakura, Dalia S., 2005. "Explaining the exchange rate pass-through in different prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 349-374, March.
  18. Artis, Michael & Ehrmann, Michael, 2006. "The exchange rate - A shock-absorber or source of shocks? A study of four open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 874-893, October.
  19. Takatoshi Ito & Yuri N. Sasaki & Kiyotaka Sato, 2005. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rate Changes and Macroeconomic Shocks to Domestic Inflation in East Asian Countries," Discussion papers 05020, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  20. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1993. "One Money or Many? On Analyzing the Prospects for Monetary Unification in Various Parts of the World," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-030, University of California at Berkeley.
  21. Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Hakura, Dalia S., 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices: Does the inflationary environment matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 614-639, June.
  22. Alexander Mihailov, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through on Prices in Macrodata: A Comparative Sensitivity Analysis," Economics Discussion Papers 568, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  23. Obstfeld, Maurice & Duarte, Margarida, 2005. "Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revisited: The Case for Exchange-Rate Flexibility Restored," 2005 Meeting Papers 386, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  24. Alexander Mihailov, 2004. "The Empirical Range of Pass-Through in US, German and Japanese Macrodata," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 44, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  25. Margarida Duarte, 2004. "Monetary policy and the adjustment to country-specific shocks," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 21-40.
  26. Joseph E. Gagnon & Jane Ihrig, 2004. "Monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the U.S.A," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 315-338.
  27. Campa, José Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 4391, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  28. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
  29. Dominique Desruelle & Alessandro Zanello, 1997. "A Primeron the IMF's Information Notice System," IMF Working Papers 97/71, International Monetary Fund.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2009. "Exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices in the Central European countries," MPRA Paper 19282, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Duo Qin & Tao Tan, 2008. "How Much Intraregional Exchange Rate Variability Could a Currency Union Remove? The Case of ASEAN+3," Working Papers 631, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  3. Weera Prasertnukul & Donghun Kim & Makoto Kakinaka, 2010. "Exchange Rates, Price Levels, and Inflation Targeting: Evidence from Asian Countries," Working Papers EMS_2010_03, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
  4. García-Solanes, José & Torrejón-Flores, Fernando, 2010. "Devaluation and pass-through in indebted and risky economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 36-45, January.
  5. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2013. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices under Different Exchange Rate Regimes," MPRA Paper 53209, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:2/2007. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Maria João Thompson).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.