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On the Stablity of the Wealth Effect

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Evidence of instability of the wealth effect in the USA is presented through the estimation of a Markov switching model of the long-run aggregate consumption function. The dating of the regimes appears to bear relation to movements in asset prices. A model-based explanation of the findings is suggested, highlighting the importance of the short-run relation between consumption, income and wealth in explaining the estimated long-run coefficients.

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Paper provided by NIPE - Universidade do Minho in its series NIPE Working Papers with number 14/2005.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:14/2005

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Keywords: Parameter instability; Markov switching; consumption; wealth effect.;

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  1. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Sydney Ludvigson & Charles Steindel, 1998. "How important is the stock market effect on consumption?," Research Paper 9821, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Gabriel Vasco J. & Alexandre Fernando & Bação Pedro, 2008. "The Consumption-Wealth Ratio under Asymmetric Adjustment," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(4), pages 1-32, December.
  4. Sydney Ludvigson & Martin Lettau, 1999. "Consumption, aggregate wealth and expected stock returns," Staff Reports 77, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  5. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
  6. Carrasco, Marine, 2002. "Misspecified Structural Change, Threshold, and Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 239-273, August.
  7. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2003. "Understanding Trend and Cycle in Asset Values: Reevaluating the Wealth Effect on Consumption," NBER Working Papers 9848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Hall, Stephen G & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1997. "Cointegration and Changes in Regime: The Japanese Consumption Function," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 151-68, March-Apr.
  9. James M. Poterba, 2000. "Stock Market Wealth and Consumption," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 99-118, Spring.
  10. Yash P. Mehra, 2001. "The wealth effect in empirical life-cycle aggregate consumption equations," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 45-67.
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Cited by:
  1. Blandina Oliveira & Adelino Fortunato, 2008. "The dynamics of the growth of firms: evidence from the services sector," Empirica, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 293-312, July.

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