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Modelling and forecasting WIG20 daily returns

Author

Listed:
  • Cristina Amado

    (NIPE/University of Minho)

  • Annastiina Silvennoinen

    (School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology)

  • Timo Teräsvirta

    (CREATES, Aarhus University and C.A.S.E., Humboldt-Universit¨at zu Berlin)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to model daily returns of the WIG20 index. The idea is to consider a model that explicitly takes changes in the amplitude of the clusters of volatility into account. This variation is modelled by a positive-valued deterministic component. A novelty in specification of the model is that the deterministic component is specified before estimating the multiplicative conditional variance component. The resulting model is subjected to misspecification tests and its forecasting performance is compared with that of commonly applied models of conditional heteroskedasticity

Suggested Citation

  • Cristina Amado & Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Teräsvirta, 2017. "Modelling and forecasting WIG20 daily returns," NIPE Working Papers 09/2017, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  • Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:09/2017
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cristina Amado & Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Ter¨asvirta, 2018. "Models with Multiplicative Decomposition of Conditional Variances and Correlations," NIPE Working Papers 07/2018, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    2. Mazur Błażej & Pipień Mateusz, 2018. "Time-varying asymmetry and tail thickness in long series of daily financial returns," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(5), pages 1-21, December.
    3. Paulo Soares Esteves & Miguel Portela & António Rua, 2018. "Does domestic demand matter for firms’ exports?," NIPE Working Papers 18/2018, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    4. Anthony D. Hall & Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Teräsvirta, 2023. "Building Multivariate Time-Varying Smooth Transition Correlation GARCH Models, with an Application to the Four Largest Australian Banks," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-37, February.
    5. Cristina Amado & Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Terasvirta, 2017. "Modelling and Forecasting WIG20 Daily Returns," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 9(3), pages 173-200, September.
    6. Paulo Soares Esteves & Miguel Portela & António Rua, 2022. "Does Domestic Demand Matter for Firms’ Exports?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 311-332, April.
    7. Anthony D. Hall & Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Teräsvirta, 2021. "Four Australian Banks and the Multivariate Time-Varying Smooth Transition Correlation GARCH model," CREATES Research Papers 2021-13, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    8. Paulo Soares Esteves & Miguel Portela & António Rua, 2022. "Does Domestic Demand Matter for Firms’ Exports?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 311-332, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity; forecasting volatility; modelling volatility; multiplicative time-varying GARCH; smooth transition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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