Consumption, Wealth, Stock and Government Bond Returns: International Evidence
AbstractIn this paper, we show, from the consumer’s budget constraint, that the residuals of the trend relationship among consumption, aggregate wealth, and labour income should predict both stock returns and government bond yields. We use data for several OECD countries and find that when agents expect future stock returns to be higher, they will temporarily allow consumption to rise. Regarding government bond yields, when bonds are seen as a component of asset wealth, then investors react in the same way. If, however, the increase in the yields is perceived as signalling a future rise in taxes, then they will temporarily reduce their consumption.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by NIPE - Universidade do Minho in its series NIPE Working Papers with number 09/2011.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
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Postal: Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas, Escola de Economia e Gestão, Universidade do Minho, P-4710-057 Braga, Portugal
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Web page: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/versao_inglesa/index_uk.htm
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Other versions of this item:
- António Afonso & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Consumption, Wealth, Stock And Government Bond Returns: International Evidence," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(6), pages 1294-1232, December.
- António Afonso & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Consumption, Wealth, Stock and Government Bond Returns: International Evidence," Working Papers 2011/09, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon..
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
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- Ricardo M. Sousa, 2009. "What Are The Wealth E¤ects Of Monetary Policy?," NIPE Working Papers 26/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2012. "Do Stock Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate in South Africa? Evidence from a Time-Varying Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201224, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
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