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The dynamics of job creation and destruction for University graduates: why a rising unemployment rate can be misleading

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Abstract

This study uses a longitudinal matched employer-employee data set on the Portuguese economy to analyze systematic information on job creation and job destruction for university graduates, comparing it to other groups of workers. We find that the unemployment rate can provide an incomplete and misleading idea of the dynamics in labor demand and of the employment prospects for university graduates. The pessimistic view that seems to be popular nowadays, stating that the expansion of higher education may have gone too far and that investment in higher education has become a too risky business, possibly not worthwhile, as employers are no longer keen on recruiting newly graduate workers, does not find support in the empirical evidence for the Portuguese economy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho in its series NIMA Working Papers with number 10.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: May 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nim:nimawp:10/2001

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Web page: http://nima.eeg.uminho.pt/

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Postal: NIMA, EEG - Universidade do Minho, 4710-057 Braga, Portugal
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Keywords: unemployment; gross job flows;

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References

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  1. Hartog, Joop & Zorlu, Aslan, 2002. "The Effect of Immigration on Wages in Three European Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 642, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Anabela Botelho & Glenn W. Harrison & Lígia Pinto & Elisabet E. Rutstrom & Paula Veiga, 2005. "Discounting in developing countries: a pilot experiment in Timor-Leste," NIMA Working Papers 31, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
  3. Paulo Guimaraes & Octavio Figueiredo & Douglas Woodward, 2000. "A tractable approach to the firm location decision problem," NIMA Working Papers 2, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
  4. Botelho, Anabela & Harrison, Glenn W. & Pinto, Lígia M. Costa & Rutström, Elisabet E., 2009. "Testing static game theory with dynamic experiments: A case study of public goods," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 253-265.e3, September.
  5. Anabela Botelho & Ligia Costa Pinto & Miguel Portela & Antonio Silva, 2001. "The determinants of success in university entrance," NIMA Working Papers 13, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
  6. Dale T. Mortensen & Christopher A. Pissarides, 1993. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," CEP Discussion Papers dp0110, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  7. Aslan Zorlu, 2003. "Do ethnicity and sex matter in pay? Analyses of 8 ethnic groups in the Dutch labour market," NIMA Working Papers 21, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
  8. Guimaraes, Paulo & Figueiredo, Octávio & Woodward, Douglas, 2002. "Modeling industrial location decisions in U.S. counties," ERSA conference papers ersa02p060, European Regional Science Association.
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  10. Ana Rute Cardoso & Priscila Ferreira, 2001. "The dynamics of job creation and destruction for University graduates: why a rising unemployment rate can be misleading," NIMA Working Papers 10, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
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  14. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1990. "Gross Job Creation and Destruction: Microeconomic Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 123-186 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  16. Pedro Portugal & Ana Rute Cardoso, 2006. "Disentangling the Minimum Wage Puzzle: An Analysis of Worker Accessions and Separations," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(5), pages 988-1013, 09.
  17. Anabela Botelho & Mark A. Hirsch & Elisabet E. Rutstrom, 2000. "Culture, nationality and demographics in ultimatum games," NIMA Working Papers 7, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
  18. Anabela Botelho & Ligia Costa Pinto, 2000. "Has Portugal gone wireless? Looking back, Looking ahead," NIMA Working Papers 5, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
  19. Paula Veiga & Ronald P. Wilder, 2006. "Maternal smoking during pregnancy and birthweight - A propensity score matching approach," NIMA Working Papers 32, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
  20. Rosa Branca Esteves & Paulo Guimaraes, 2000. "Price discrimination and targeted advertising: a welfare analysis," NIMA Working Papers 4, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
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  22. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger & Scott Schuh, 1993. "Small Business and Job Creation: Dissecting the Myth and Reassessing theFacts," NBER Working Papers 4492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Miguel Portela, 2001. "The impact of segregation on wage inequality: a look at recruitment and pay policies at the firm level," NIMA Working Papers 8, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
  24. Natália Barbosa & Helen Louri, 2005. "Corporate Performance: Does Ownership Matter? A Comparison of Foreign- and Domestic-Owned Firms in Greece and Portugal," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 73-102, 08.
  25. Paula Veiga, 2005. "Income-related health inequality in Portugal," NIMA Working Papers 28, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
  26. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Diamond, Peter, 1992. "The Flow Approach to Labor Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 354-59, May.
  27. Belzil, Christian, 2000. "Job Creation and Job Destruction, Worker Reallocation, and Wages," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(2), pages 183-203, April.
  28. Anabela Botelho & Lígia M. Costa Pinto & Isabel Rodrigues, 2005. "How To Comply With Environmental Regulations? The Role Of Information," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 23(4), pages 568-577, October.
  29. Anabela Botelho & Glenn W. Harrison & Marc A. Hirsch & Elisabet E. Rutstrom, 2001. "Bargaining behavior, demographics and nationality: a reconsideration of the experimental evidence," NIMA Working Papers 16, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
  30. Pedro P. Barros & Clara E. Dismuke, 2000. "Hospital production in a national health service: the physician's dilemma," NIMA Working Papers 6, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
  31. Natália Barbosa, 2003. "What drives new firms into an industry? An integrative model of entry," NIMA Working Papers 23, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
  32. Octavio Figueiredo & Paulo Guimaraes & Douglas Woodward, 2001. "Asymmetric information and location," NIMA Working Papers 11, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Anabela Botelho & Lígia Pinto, 2003. "Students' expectations of the economic returns to college education Results of a controlled experiment," NIMA Working Papers 27, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
  2. Heshmati, Almas, 2007. "Labor Market Policy Options of the Kurdistan Regional Government," IZA Discussion Papers 3247, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Ligia Costa Pinto & Glenn Harrison, 2000. "Multilateral negotiations over climate change policy," NIMA Working Papers 1, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
  4. Elvira Lima & David K. Whynes, 2003. "Finance and performance of Portuguese hospitals," NIMA Working Papers 20, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
  5. Cardoso, Ana Rute & Portugal, Pedro, 2001. "Disentangling the Minimum Wage Puzzle: An Analysis of Job Accessions and Separations from a Longitudinal Matched Employer-Employee Data Set," CEPR Discussion Papers 2844, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Aslan Zorlu & Joop Hartog, 2005. "The effect of immigration on wages in three european countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 113-151, December.
  7. Anabela Botelho & Ligia Costa Pinto & Miguel Portela & Antonio Silva, 2001. "The determinants of success in university entrance," NIMA Working Papers 13, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
  8. Paulo Guimaraes, 2001. "The state of Portuguese research in economics: an anlysis based on publications in international journals," NIMA Working Papers 15, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
  9. Ana Rute Cardoso & Priscila Ferreira, 2009. "The dynamics of job creation and destruction for university graduates: why a rising unemployment rate can be misleading," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 41(19), pages 2513-2521.
  10. Anabela Botelho & Ligia Costa Pinto, 2001. "Hypothetical, real, and predicted real willingness to pay in open-ended surveys: experimental results," NIMA Working Papers 12, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
  11. Elvira Lima & Teresa J. Esquerdo, 2003. "The economic costs of alcohol misuse in Portugal," NIMA Working Papers 24, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
  12. Anabela Botelho, 2001. "Strategic behavior at trial-The production, reporting, and evaluation of complex evidence," NIMA Working Papers 14, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
  13. Joao Cerejeira da Silva, 2002. "Identification of the Portuguese industrial districts," NIMA Working Papers 17, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.

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