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The impact of EU enlargement on migration flows

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  • Dustmann, C.
  • Casanova, M.
  • Fertig, M.
  • Preston, I.
  • Schmidt, C.M.

Abstract

This document is a report commissioned by the Home Office in order to assess the magnitude of potential migration flows to the UK after the enlargement of the European Union (EU). The countries which are expected to join the EU on 1 May 2004 are Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. The aim of the report is to provide extensive information that will be helpful in evaluating the migration potential from these countries to the UK. This is done by (i) describing the socio-economic situation of the accession countries nowadays and since the early 1990s and comparing it to that of the UK and Germany, (ii) critically reviewing the existing literature that attempts to predict the effects of the current EU enlargement on migration flows, (iii) analysing the so-called Southern enlargement (the accessions of Greece, Portugal and Spain) and comparing it to the current one, and (iv) presenting a quantitative analysis of the effect of the current enlargement on migration to the UK.

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File URL: http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/14332/1/14332.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University College London in its series Open Access publications from University College London with number http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/14332/.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ner:ucllon:http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/14332/

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Web page: http://www.ucl.ac.uk

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References

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  1. Jan Delhey, 2001. "The Prospects of Catching up for New EU Members Lessons for the Accession Countries to the European Union from Previous Enlargements," Social Indicators Research, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 205-231, November.
  2. Michael Fertig, 2001. "The economic impact of EU-enlargement: assessing the migration potential," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 707-720.
  3. Rotte, Ralph & Vogler, Michael, 1999. "The Effects of Development on Migration: Theoretical Issues and New Empirical Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 46, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 1999. "EU Enlargement, Migration and Lessons from German Unification," CEPR Discussion Papers 2174, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Hans-Werner Sinn & Gebhard Flaig & Martin Werding & Sonja Munz & Nicola Düll & Herbert Hofmann, 2001. "EU-Erweiterung und Arbeitskräftemigration : Wege zu einer schrittweisen Annäherung der Arbeitsmärkte," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 2, March.
  6. Hatton, Timothy J, 1995. "A Model of U.K. Emigration, 1870-1913," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(3), pages 407-15, August.
  7. Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2000. "Aggregate-Level Migration Studies as a Tool for Forecasting Future Migration Streams," IZA Discussion Papers 183, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Bauer, Thomas K. & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1999. "Report No. 3: Assessment of Possible Migration Pressure and its Labour Market Impact Following EU Enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe," IZA Research Reports 3, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Wadensjö, Eskil, 2007. "Migration to Sweden from the New EU Member States," IZA Discussion Papers 3190, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Ondřej Glazar & Wadim Strielkowski, 2009. "Turkey and the European Union: possible incidence of the EU accession on migration flows," Working Papers IES 2009/15, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2009.
  3. Tito Boeri & Herbert Brücker, 2005. "Migration, Co-ordination Failures and EU Enlargement: Paper Presented at the 41st Economic Policy Panel in Luxembourg, 15/16 April 2005," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 481, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  4. Tito Boeri, 2009. "Immigration to the Land of Redistribution," Europe in Question Discussion Paper Series of the London School of Economics (LEQs) 5, London School of Economics / European Institute.
  5. Baas, Timo & Brücker, Herbert, 2008. "Macroeconomic consequences of migration diversion : a CGE simulation for Germany and the UK," IAB Discussion Paper 200803, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  6. Boeri, Tito & Brücker, Herbert, 2005. "Migration, Co-ordination Failures and EU Enlargement," IZA Discussion Papers 1600, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  7. Zaiceva, Anzelika & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2008. "Scale, Diversity, and Determinants of Labour Migration in Europe," IZA Discussion Papers 3595, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Zaiceva, Anzelika, 2006. "Reconciling the Estimates of Potential Migration into the Enlarged European Union," IZA Discussion Papers 2519, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  9. Carsten Pohl, 2006. "Zwei Jahre nach der EU-Osterweiterung: geringe Mobilität von Arbeitskräften aus den neuen EU-Mitgliedsländern," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(02), pages 26-32, 04.
  10. Anzelika Zaiceva, 2004. "Implications of EU Accession for International Migration: An Assessment of Potential Migration Pressure," CESifo Working Paper Series 1184, CESifo Group Munich.
  11. Demet Beton & Glenn Jenkins, 2008. "Migration from Turkey and the Uncertainty of the Accession of Turkey to the EU," Working Papers 1182, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  12. Stephen Drinkwater & John Eade & Michal Garapich, 2006. "Poles Apart? EU Enlargement and the Labour Market Outcomes of immigrants in the UK," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1706, School of Economics, University of Surrey.

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