On the likely extent of falls in Irish house prices
AbstractLooking at house price cycles across the OECD since 1970, we find a strong relationship between the size of the initial rise in price and its subsequent fall. Were this relationship to hold for Ireland, it would predict falls of real house prices of 40 to 60 per cent over a period of 8 to 9 years. The unusually large size of the Irish house building industry suggest that any significant house price fall that does occur could impose a difficult adjustment on the economy.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University College Dublin in its series Open Access publications from University College Dublin with number urn:hdl:10197/908.
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Quarterly Economic Commentary (2007) v., p.42-55
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Web page: http://www.ucd.ie
Housing prices; Regression analysis; Macroeconomics; Economic impact;
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