Validation of models: Statistical techniques and data availability
AbstractThis paper shows which statistical techniques can be used to validate simulation models, depending on which real-life data are available. Concerning this availability three situations are distinguished (i) no data, (ii) only output data, and (iii) both input and output data. In case (i) - no real data - the analysts can still experiment with the simulation model to obtain simulated data; such an experiment should be guided by the statistical theory on the design of experiments. In case (ii) - only output data - real and simulated output data can be compared through the well-known two-sample Student t statistic or certain other statistics. In case (iii) - input and output data - trace-driven simulation becomes possible, but validation should not proceed in the popular way (make a scatter plot with real and simulated outputs, fit a line, and test whether that line has unit slope and passes through the origin); alternative regression and bootstrap procedures are presented. Several case studies are summarized, to illustrate the three types of situations.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tilburg University in its series Open Access publications from Tilburg University with number urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-81791.
Date of creation: 1999
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- Kleijnen, J.P.C., 1999. "Validation of Models: Statistical Techniques and Data Availability," Discussion Paper, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research 1999-104, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
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