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Aging and political decision making on public pensions

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  • Meijdam, A.C.

    (Tilburg University)

  • Verbon, H.A.A.

    (Tilburg University)

Abstract

In this paper decision making on public pensions in a representative democracy is modeled within the framework of the well-known two-overlapping-generations (OLG) general-equilibrium model with rational expectations. The model is used to analyze the effects of aging on the economy in general and on the evolution of public pension schemes in particular, where aging is interpreted as a combination of a decrease in the rate of population growth and an increase in the political influence of pensioners. Analytical results are derived for the long run as well as for the short run by the method of comparative statics and comparative dynamics respectively. It appears that an increase in transfers to the old is not guaranteed if due to aging their political power increases.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tilburg University in its series Open Access publications from Tilburg University with number urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-72302.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Population Economics (1996) v.9, p.141-158
Handle: RePEc:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-72302

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Web page: http://www.tilburguniversity.edu/

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References

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  1. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
  2. Harrie Verbon & Marijn Verhoeven, 1992. "Decision making on pension schemes under rational expectations," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 71-97, February.
  3. Kristov, Lorenzo & Lindert, Peter & McClelland, Robert, 1992. "Pressure groups and redistribution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 135-163, July.
  4. Blanchet, Didier & Kessler, Denis, 1991. "Optimal Pension Funding with Demographic Instability and Endogenous Returns on Investment," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 137-54, May.
  5. Meijdam, A.C. & Verhoeven, M.J.M., 1994. "Comparative dynamics in perfect-foresight models," Discussion Paper 1994-73, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  6. Boadway, R.W. & Wildasin, D.E., 1987. "A median voter model of social security," CORE Discussion Papers 1987014, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  7. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Hansson, Ingemar & Stuart, Charles, 1989. "Social Security as Trade among Living Generations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1182-95, December.
  9. Meijdam, A.C. & Verbon, H.A.A., 1997. "Aging and public pensions in an overlapping-generations model," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-73874, Tilburg University.
  10. Paul van den Noord & Richard Herd, 1993. "Pension Liabilities in the Seven Major Economies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 142, OECD Publishing.
  11. Cigno, Alessandro, 1992. "Children and Pensions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 175-83, August.
  12. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Mehmet Serkan Tosun, 2000. "Worldwide Population Aging: Endogenous Policy Formation and Capital Market Transmissions in the Presence of Symmetric Demographic Shocks," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 27, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  2. Tosun, Mehmet Serkan, 2003. "Population aging and economic growth: political economy and open economy effects," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 291-296, December.
  3. Friedrich Breyer & Klaus Stolte, 2001. "Demographic change, endogenous labor supply and the political feasibility of pension reform," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 409-424.
  4. Julio Lípez Díaz & Zenón J. Ridruejo, . "Cambio demográfico, inmigración y crecimiento económico," Studies on the Spanish Economy 99, FEDEA.
  5. Julio López Díaz & Zenón J. Ridruejo, 2003. "Pensiones, crecimiento y envejecimiento de la población," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 27(2), pages 343-367, May.
  6. Bernard M.S. van Praag & Pedro Cardoso, 2003. "The Mix Between Pay-as-you-go and Funded Pensions and What Demography Has to Do with it," CESifo Working Paper Series 865, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Johansson, Per-Olov, 2000. "Properties of actuarially fair and pay-as-you-go health insurance schemes for the elderly. An OLG model approach," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 477-498, July.
  8. Meijdam, Lex & Verbon, Harrie A A, 1997. "Aging and Public Pensions in an Overlapping-Generations Model," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(1), pages 29-42, January.
  9. Douglas Holtz-Eakin & Mary E. Lovely & Mehmet Serkan Tosun, 2000. "Generational Conflict, Human Capital Accumulation, and Economic Growth," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 28, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  10. Grégory de Walque, 2005. "Voting on Pensions: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 181-209, 04.
  11. Lucas Bretschger & Karen Pittel, 2005. "Innovative investments, natural resources, and intergenerational fairness : are pension funds good for sustainable development?," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 05/36, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
  12. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Lovely, Mary E. & Tosun, Mehmet S., 2004. "Generational conflict, fiscal policy, and economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 1-23, March.
  13. Francisco M. Lagos & Juan Antonio Lacomba, 2000. "- Social Security And Political Election In Retirement Age," Working Papers. Serie AD 2000-11, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  14. Alexander Haupt & Wolfgang Peters, 2001. "Voting on Public Pensions With Hand and Feet: How Young Migrants Try to Escape From Gerontocracy," CESifo Working Paper Series 523, CESifo Group Munich.
  15. Francisco M. Lagos & Juan Antonio Lacomba, 2001. "Election On Retirement Age," Working Papers. Serie AD 2001-09, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  16. Paola Profeta, 2002. "Aging and Retirement: Evidence Across Countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 9(6), pages 651-672, November.
  17. Pedro Cardoso & Bernard M.S. van Praag, 2003. "How Sustainable Are Old-age Pensions in a Shrinking Population with Endogenous Labour Supply?," CESifo Working Paper Series 861, CESifo Group Munich.
  18. Galasso, Vincenzo & Profeta, Paola, 2002. "The political economy of social security: a survey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-29, March.

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