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Structural and reduced-form modeling and forecasting with application to Armenia

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  • Poghosyan, K.
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    Abstract

    Abstract: The thesis deals with structural and reduced-form modeling and forecasting of key macroeconomic variables (real growth of GDP, inflation, exchange rate, and policy interest rate). The central part of the thesis (Chapters 2-4) consists of three chapters. Chapter 2 considers the structural DSGE model and its forecasting possibilities. Chapter 3 considers the dynamic factor model (DFM) and its forecasting possibilities. Finally, Chapter 4 compares these two popular forecasting approaches, and describes which modeling approach gives more accurate and reliable forecasting results.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Tilburg University in its series Open Access publications from Tilburg University with number urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-5590845.

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    Length: 126
    Date of creation: 2012
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    Publication status: Published
    Handle: RePEc:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-5590845

    Note: Dissertation
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    Web page: http://www.tilburguniversity.edu/

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