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The budgeting and economic consequences of ageing in the Netherlands

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  • Beetsma, R.M.W.J.

    (Tilburg University)

  • Bettendorf , L.J.H.
  • Broer, D.P.

    (Tilburg University)

Abstract

The costs of population ageing are primarily reflected in larger expenditures on pensions and health care. This paper explores the consequences of ageing for the Netherlands in a baseline scenario simulated with a dynamic general equilibrium model. We discuss the sensitivity of the results under alternative projections for population ageing. We explore also the effects of three types of social security reform: a reduction in benefits, an increase in the retirement age and smoothing of the public pension premium over time. We find that the welfare effects of ageing and the reforms are substantial.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tilburg University in its series Open Access publications from Tilburg University with number urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-383717.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Publication status: Published in Economic Modelling (2003) v.20, p.987-1013
Handle: RePEc:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-383717

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Web page: http://www.tilburguniversity.edu/

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  1. Kapteyn, Arie & de Vos, Klaas, 1998. "Social Security and Labor-Force Participation in the Netherlands," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 164-67, May.
  2. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Willi Leibfritz, 1998. "An International Comparison of Generational Accounts," NBER Working Papers 6447, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational Accounts - A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting," NBER Working Papers 3589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Broer, D Peter & Westerhout, Ed W M T & Bovenberg, A Lans, 1994. " Taxation, Pensions and Saving in a Small Open Economy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(3), pages 403-24.
  5. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Jonathan Gruber & David Wise, 1997. "Social Security Programs and Retirement Around the World: Introduction and Summary of Papers by..," NBER Working Papers 6134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Dave Turner & Claude Giorno & Alain de Serres & Ann Vourc'h & Pete Richardson, 1998. "The Macroeconomic Implications of Ageing in a Global Context," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 193, OECD Publishing.
  8. Miles, David K, 1997. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change Upon the Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1762, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Jagadeesh Gokhale & Benjamin R. Page & John Sturrock, 1999. "Generational Accounts for the United States: An Update," NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, in: Generational Accounting around the World, pages 489-518 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Breyer, Friedrich & Straub, Martin, 1991. "Welfare effects of unfunded pension systems when labor supply is endogenous," Discussion Papers, Series I 252, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics.
  11. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Robert P. Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "The Economic Dynamics of an Ageing Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 62, OECD Publishing.
  12. Bernd Raffelhüschen, 1993. "Funding social security through Pareto-optimal conversion policies," Journal of Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 105-131, December.
  13. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
  14. Fehr, Hans, 1999. "Welfare Effects of Dynamic Tax Reforms," Beiträge zur Finanzwissenschaft, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, edition 1, volume 5, number urn:isbn:9783161470165, July.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Holmøy, Erling & Strøm, Birger, 2013. "Computable General Equilibrium Assessments of Fiscal Sustainability in Norway," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier.
  2. Dennis Fredriksen & Nils Martin Stølen, 2005. "Effects of demographic development, labour supply and pension reforms on the future pension burden," Discussion Papers, Research Department of Statistics Norway 418, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  3. Kim Massey Heide & Erling Holmøy & Ingeborg Foldøy Solli & Birger Strøm, 2006. "A welfare state funded by nature and OPEC. A guided tour on Norway's path from an exceptionally impressive to an exceptionally strained fiscal position," Discussion Papers, Research Department of Statistics Norway 464, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  4. Ralitza Dimova & François-Charles Wolff, 2011. "Do downward private transfers enhance maternal labor supply? Evidence from around Europe," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 911-933, July.
  5. Manuel Kallweit, 2009. "Rentenreform und Rentenzugangsentscheidung – Eine numerische Gleichgewichtsanalyse," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 229(4), pages 426-449, August.
  6. François-Charles Wolff & Ralitza Dimova, 2006. "How Do Migrants Care for Their Elderly Parents? Time, Money and Location," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 142(V), pages 123-130.
  7. Erling Holmøy, 2007. "Fiscal sustainability: Must the problem be diminished before we can see it?," Discussion Papers, Research Department of Statistics Norway 499, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  8. Fehr, Hans & Habermann, Christian, 2006. "Pension reform and demographic uncertainty: the case of Germany," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(01), pages 69-90, March.
  9. Erling Holmøy & Kyrre Stensnes, 2008. "Will the Norwegian pension reform reach its goals? An integrated micro-macro assessment," Discussion Papers, Research Department of Statistics Norway 557, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  10. Mario Catalan & Nicolas E. Magud, 2012. "A Tradeoff between the Output and Current Account Effects of Pension Reform," IMF Working Papers 12/283, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Nabli, Mustapha K. & Yousef, Tarik & Jensen, Henning Tarp, 2004. "Labor market reforms, growth, and unemployment in labor-exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3328, The World Bank.
  12. Jokisch, Sabine & Halder, Gitte & Fehr, Hans, 2004. "A Simulation Model for the Demographic Transition in Germany : Data Requirements, Model Structure and Calibration," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 48, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  13. Koka, Katerina & Kosempel, Stephen, 2014. "A life-cycle analysis of ending mandatory retirement," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 57-66.
  14. Fehr, Hans & Halder, Gitte & Jokisch, Sabine & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2003. "A simulation model for the demographic transition in the OECD: Data requirements, model structure and calibration," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 45, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  15. Erling Holmøy, 2006. "Real appreciation as an automatic channel for redistribution of increased government non-tax revenue," Discussion Papers, Research Department of Statistics Norway 471, Research Department of Statistics Norway.

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