Regime jumps in electricity prices
AbstractElectricity prices are known to be very volatile and subject to frequent jumps due to system breakdown, demand shocks, and inelastic supply. As many international electricity markets are in some state of deregulation, more and more participants in these markets are exposed to these stylised facts. Appropriate pricing, portfolio, and risk management models should incorporate these facts. Authors have introduced stochastic jump processes to deal with the jumps, but we argue and show that this specification might lead to problems with identifying the true mean-reversion within the process. Instead, we propose using a regime jump model that disentangles mean-reversion from jump behaviour. This model resembles more closely the true price path of electricity prices.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tilburg University in its series Open Access publications from Tilburg University with number urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3131736.
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Energy Economics (2003) v.25, p.425-434
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Other versions of this item:
- Huisman, R. & Mahieu, R.J., 2001. "Regime Jumps in Electricity Prices," Research Paper ERS-2001-48-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
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- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
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