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Strategic investment under uncertainty: Merging real options with game theory

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Author Info

  • Huisman, K.J.M.

    (Tilburg University)

  • Kort, P.M.

    (Tilburg University)

  • Pawlina, G.

    (Tilburg University)

  • Thijssen, J.J.J.

    (Tilburg University)

Abstract

As becomes apparent from the standard text books in industrial organization (cf.Tirole, 1988, The Theory of Industrial Organization), the analysis of the e.ects of uncertainty within this field is yet underdeveloped.This paper shows that the new theory of strategic real options can be used to fill this empty hole .Based on the work by Smets (1991) standard models are identified, and they are analyzed by applying a method involving symmetric mixed strategies.As an illustration, extensions regarding asymmetry, technology adoption and decreasing uncertainty over time are reviewed.Among others, it is found that the value of a high cost firm can increase in its own cost.Furthermore, it is established to what extent investments are delayed when technologial progress is anticipated, and it is found that competition can be bad for welfare.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tilburg University in its series Open Access publications from Tilburg University with number urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-142400.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Publication status: Published in Zeitschrift für Betriebswirtschaft (2004) v.3, p.97-123
Handle: RePEc:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-142400

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Web page: http://www.tilburguniversity.edu/

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Cited by:
  1. Pietola, Kyosti & Myyra, Sami & Pouta, Eija, 2009. "Fiscal and trade distorting effects of capital gains tax on land sales - empirical evidence from agricultural land market in Finland," Discussion Papers 50040, MTT Agrifood Research Finland.
  2. de Villemeur, Etienne Billette & Ruble, Richard & Versaevel, Bruno, 2013. "Caveat preemptor: Coordination failure and success in a duopoly investment game," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 250-254.
  3. Heikkinen, T. & Pietola, K., 2009. "Investment and the dynamic cost of income uncertainty: The case of diminishing expectations in agriculture," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 634-646, January.
  4. YongQiang Chu & Tien Sing, 2007. "Optimal Timing of Real Estate Investment under an Asymmetric Duopoly," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 327-345, April.
  5. Bouis, Romain & Huisman, Kuno J.M. & Kort, Peter M., 2009. "Investment in oligopoly under uncertainty: The accordion effect," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 320-331, March.
  6. Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 2013. "Strategic Capacity Investment Under uncertainty," Discussion Paper 2013-003, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  7. Doriana Ruffino & Jonathan Treussard, 2006. "Lumps and Clusters in Duopolistic Investment Games: An Early Exercise Premium Approach," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-044, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  8. Roques, Fabien A. & Savva, Nicos, 2009. "Investment under uncertainty with price ceilings in oligopolies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 507-524, February.

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