Common factors in international bond returns
AbstractIn this paper we estimate and interpret the factors that jointly determine bond returns of different maturities in the US, Germany and Japan.We analyze both currency-hedged and unhedged bond returns.For currency-hedged bond returns, we find that five factors explain 96.5% of the variation of bond returns.These factors can be associated with changes in the level and steepness of the term structures in (some of) these countries.In particular, it turns out that changes in the level of the term structures are correlated across countries, while changes in the steepness of the term structures are country-specific.The five-factor model also provides a good fit of the expected returns of bond returns in all countries.We find similar results for bond returns that are not hedged for currency risk.Finally, we show how the model can be used to calculate the Value at Risk for international bond portfolios and to price cross-currency interest rate derivatives, and compare the results with simpler models.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tilburg University in its series Open Access publications from Tilburg University with number urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-123825.
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of International Money and Finance (2003) v.22, p.629-656
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tilburguniversity.edu/
Other versions of this item:
- F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December.
- Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1990. "Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Discrete Time Approximation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(04), pages 419-440, December.
- Frederick R. Macaulay, 1938. "Some Theoretical Problems Suggested by the Movements of Interest Rates, Bond Yields and Stock Prices in the United States since 1856," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number maca38-1, December.
- Antoine Frachot, 1995. "Factor Models Of Domestic And Foreign Interest Rates With Stochastic Volatilities," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 167-185.
- Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
- Knez, Peter J & Litterman, Robert & Scheinkman, Jose Alexandre, 1994. " Explorations into Factors Explaining Money Market Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1861-82, December.
- Ilmanen, Antti, 1995. " Time-Varying Expected Returns in International Bond Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 481-506, June.
- Brian M Lucey & Suk-Joong Kim & Eliza Wu, 2005. "Dynamics of Bond Market Integration between Existing And Accession EU Countries," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp025, IIIS.
- Bredin, Don & Hyde, Stuart & Reilly, Gerard O., 2010. "Monetary policy surprises and international bond markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 988-1002, October.
- Steeley, James M., 2006. "Volatility transmission between stock and bond markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 71-86, February.
- Qiang Dai & Kenneth Singleton, 2003. "Term Structure Dynamics in Theory and Reality," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 631-678, July.
- Faruk Balli, 2009.
"Spillover effects on government bond yields in euro zone. Does full financial integration exist in European government bond markets?,"
Journal of Economics and Finance,
Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 331-363, October.
- Balli, Faruk, 2008. "Spillover Effects on Government Bond Yields in Euro Zone. Does Full Financial Integration Exist in European Government Bond Markets?," MPRA Paper 10162, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Johansson, Anders C., 2008. "Interdependencies among Asian bond markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 101-116, April.
- Jeon, Bang Nam & Ji, Philip & Zhang, Hongfang, 2012. "International linkages of Japanese bond markets: an empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 36929, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jan 2012.
- Perignon, Christophe & Smith, Daniel R. & Villa, Christophe, 2007. "Why common factors in international bond returns are not so common," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 284-304, March.
- Skintzi, Vasiliki D. & Refenes, Apostolos N., 2006. "Volatility spillovers and dynamic correlation in European bond markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 23-40, February.
- Larsen, Linda Sandris & Munk, Claus, 2012. "The costs of suboptimal dynamic asset allocation: General results and applications to interest rate risk, stock volatility risk, and growth/value tilts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 266-293.
- Liew, Venus Khim-Sen & Qiao, Zhuo & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2008.
"Linearity and stationarity of G7 government bond returns,"
24836, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Sep 2010.
- Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Zhuo Qiao & Wing-keung Wong, 2010. "Linearity and stationarity of G7 government bond returns," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(4), pages 2642-2655.
- ZHU Xiaoneng & Shahidur RAHMAN, 2009. "Global Yield Curves and Sovereign Bond Market Integration," Economic Growth centre Working Paper Series 0902, Nanyang Technolgical University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth centre.
- Gregory H. Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
- Jesper Rangvid & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2009. "Global Asset Pricing: Is There a Role for Long-run Consumption Risk?," CREATES Research Papers 2009-57, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Christiansen, Charlotte, 2003. "Volatility-Spillover E ﬀects in European Bond Markets," Finance Working Papers 03-8, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
- Díaz, Antonio & González, María de la O & Navarro, Eliseo & Skinner, Frank S., 2009. "An evaluation of contingent immunization," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1874-1883, October.
- He, Hui & Locke, Peter, 2011. "Global trends in real risk free rates," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 53-63, January.
- Kim, Suk-Joong & Lucey, Brian M. & Wu, Eliza, 2006. "Dynamics of bond market integration between established and accession European Union countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 41-56, February.
- Corwin, Shane A. & Lipson, Marc L., 2011. "Order characteristics and the sources of commonality in prices and liquidity," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 47-81, February.
- Chi-Sang Tam & Ip-Wing Yu, 2008. "Modelling sovereign bond yield curves of the US, Japan and Germany," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 82-91.
- Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 2007. "The comovement of US and German bond markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 172-182.
- Ielpo, Florian & Brière, Marie, 2009. "Yield Curve Reaction to Macroeconomic News in Europe : Disentangling the US Influence," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/9305, Paris Dauphine University.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Economists Online Support).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.