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Comparing predictions and outcomes: theory and application to income changes

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  • Das, J.W.M.

    (Tilburg University)

  • Dominitz, J.
  • Soest, A.H.O. van

    (Tilburg University)

Abstract

Household surveys often elicit respondents' intentions or predictions of future outcomes. The survey questions may ask respondents to choose among a selection of (ordered) response categories. If panel data or repeated cross-sections are available, predictions may be compared with realized outcomes. The categorical nature of the predictions data, however, complicates this comparison. Generalizing previous findings on binary intentions data, we derive bounds on features of the empirical distribution of realized outcomes under the "best-case" hypothesis that respondents form rational expectations and that reported expectations are best predictions of future outcomes. These bounds are shown to depend on the assumed model of how respondents form their "best prediction" when forced to choose among (ordered) categories. An application to data on income change expectations and realizations illustrates how alternative response models may be used to test the best-case hypothesis.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tilburg University in its series Open Access publications from Tilburg University with number urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-121742.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Publication status: Published in Journal of the American Statistical Association (1998) v., p.-
Handle: RePEc:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-121742

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Web page: http://www.tilburguniversity.edu/

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References

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  1. Kapteyn, A.J. & Kooreman, P. & Willemse, R.J., 1988. "Some methodological issues in the implementation of subjective poverty definitions," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-364358, Tilburg University.
  2. Das, J.W.M. & Soest, A.H.O. van, 1997. "Expected and realized income changes: Evidence from the Dutch socio-economic panel," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-121744, Tilburg University.
  3. Hardle, W., 1992. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Papers 9206, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
  4. Oliver LINTON, . "Applied nonparametric methods," Statistic und Oekonometrie 9312, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
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  6. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1996. "Eliciting Student Expectations of the Returns to Schooling," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 31(1), pages 1-26.
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  8. Giucca, P. & Jappelli, T. & Terlizzese, D., 1992. "Earning Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving," Papers 161, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  9. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations," NBER Working Papers 4937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Lovell, Michael C, 1986. "Tests of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 110-24, March.
  11. Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-38, May.
  12. F. Thomas Juster, 1966. "Consumer Buying Intentions and Purchase Probability: An Experiment in Survey Design," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number just66-2, June.
  13. Das, Marcel & van Soest, Arthur, 1999. "A panel data model for subjective information on household income growth," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 409-426, December.
  14. Leonard, Jonathan S, 1982. "Wage Expectations in the Labor Market: Survey Evidence on Rationality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(1), pages 157-61, February.
  15. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-35, September.
  16. Ilmakunnas, Seija & Pudney, Stephen, 1990. "A model of female labour supply in the presence of hours restrictions," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 183-210, March.
  17. Das, Marcel & Donkers, Bas, 1999. "How Certain Are Dutch Households about Future Income? An Empirical Analysis," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 45(3), pages 325-38, September.
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  19. James Tobin, 1957. "On the Predictive Value of Consumer Intentions and Attitudes," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 41, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  20. William Gould, 1993. "Quantile regression with bootstrapped standard errors," Stata Technical Bulletin, StataCorp LP, vol. 2(9).
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Badi H. Baltagi, 2008. "Forecasting with panel data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 153-173.
  2. Maurizio Bovi, 2006. "Consumers Sentiment and Cognitive Macroeconometrics Paradoxes and Explanations," ISAE Working Papers 66, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  3. Lui, Silvia & Mitchell, James & Weale, Martin, 2011. "The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1128-1146, October.
  4. Paul Frijters & John P. Haisken-DeNew & Michael Shields, 2003. "How Well Do Individuals Predict Their Future Life Satisfaction? Rationality and Learning Following a Nationwide Exogenous Shock," CEPR Discussion Papers 468, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
  5. Breitung, Jörg & Schmeling, Maik, 2011. "Quantifying survey expectations: What's wrong with the probability approach?," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-485, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  6. Mauro Mastrogiacomo, 2006. "Testing consumers' asymmetric reaction to wealth changes," CPB Discussion Paper 53, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  7. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra Dwyer & Wayne-Roy Gayle & Thomas Muench, 2008. "Expectations in micro data: rationality revisited," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 381-416, March.
  8. Ramos, Xavi & Schluter, Christian, 2006. "Subjective Income Expectations and Income Risk," IZA Discussion Papers 1950, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  9. Dean R. Hyslop & Guido W. Imbens, 2000. "Bias from Classical and Other Forms of Measurement Error," NBER Technical Working Papers 0257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Das, J.W.M. & Soest, A.H.O. van, 2000. "Expected Versus Realized Income Changes: A Test of the Rational Expectation Hypothesis," Discussion Paper 2000-105, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  11. Hoderlein, Stefan & Winter, Joachim, 2009. "Structural Measurement Errors in Nonseparable Models," Discussion Papers in Economics 9192, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  12. Frijters, Paul & Haisken-DeNew, John P. & Shields, Michael A., 2002. "Individual Rationality and Learning: Welfare Expectations in East Germany Post-Reunification," IZA Discussion Papers 498, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  13. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2003. "How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence (Sentiment)? Evidence from the Michigan Survey of Consumers," NBER Working Papers 9926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Jürgen Arns & Kaushik Bhattacharya, 2005. "Modelling Aggregate Consumption Growth with Time-Varying Parameters," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse15_2005, University of Bonn, Germany.
  15. Yu, Ge, 2003. "Comparing Expectations and Outcomes: Application to UK Data," MPRA Paper 502, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2005.

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