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A panel data model for subjective information on household income growth

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  • Das, J.W.M.

    (Tilburg University)

  • Soest, A.H.O. van

    (Tilburg University)

Abstract

Subjective expectations about future income changes are analyzed, using household panel data. The models used are extensions of existing binary choice panel data models to the case of ordered response. We consider static models with random and fixed individual effects. We also look at a dynamic random effects model which includes a measure for permanent and transitory income. We find that income change expectations strongly depend on realized income changes in the past: those whose income fell, are more pessimistic than others, while those whose income rose are more optimistic. Expected income changes are also significantly affected by employment status, family composition, permanent income, and past expectations. Expectations are then compared to the head of households ex post perception of the realized income change for the same period. The main finding is that rational expectations are rejected, and that in particular, households whose income has decreased in the past underestimate their future income growth.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tilburg University in its series Open Access publications from Tilburg University with number urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-121740.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization (1996) v., p.-
Handle: RePEc:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-121740

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Web page: http://www.tilburguniversity.edu/

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  1. Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-33, March.
  2. Deaton, Angus, 1992. "Understanding Consumption," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288244, Octomber.
  3. Das, J.W.M. & Soest, A.H.O. van, 1997. "Expected and realized income changes: Evidence from the Dutch socio-economic panel," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-121744, Tilburg University.
  4. Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1996. "Income Risk, Borrowing Constraints, and Portfolio Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 158-72, March.
  5. Giucca, P. & Jappelli, T. & Terlizzese, D., 1992. "Earning Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving," Papers 161, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  6. Alessie, Rob & Lusardi, Annamaria, 1997. "Saving and income smoothing: Evidence from panel data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1251-1279, July.
  7. Friedhelm PFEIFFER & Winfried POHLMEIER, 1992. "Income, Uncertainty and the Probability of Self-Employment," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 1992032, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  8. Chamberlain, Gary, 1980. "Analysis of Covariance with Qualitative Data," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 225-38, January.
  9. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations," Econometrics 9411003, EconWPA.
  10. repec:att:wimass:8905 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Lusardi, Annamaria, 1997. "Precautionary saving and subjective earnings variance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 319-326, December.
  12. Butler, J S & Moffitt, Robert, 1982. "A Computationally Efficient Quadrature Procedure for the One-Factor Multinomial Probit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 761-64, May.
  13. Carroll, Christopher D, 1994. "How Does Future Income Affect Current Consumption?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 111-47, February.
  14. Alessie, Rob & Lusardi, Annamaria & Aldershof, Trea, 1997. "Income and Wealth over the Life Cycle: Evidence from Panel Data," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 43(1), pages 1-32, March.
  15. Chamberlain, Gary, 1984. "Panel data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1247-1318 Elsevier.
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