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Après le choc récessif survenu au tournant de 2008 et de 2009, les économies du monde paraissent enfin avoir stoppé l’effondrement de leur activité. La croissance pourrait être consolidée au cours de la seconde partie de l’année 2009, notamment grâce à la normalisation de la situation sur les marchés financiers. Les politiques publiques seront parvenues à enrayer la spirale baissière. Les stocks et l’investissement, qui avaient largement contribué au déclin de l’activité, joueraient un rôle symétrique dans le retour de la croissance, corrigeant ainsi le sur-ajustement précédent. Enfin, le rebond des pays émergents permettrait la réactivation du commerce mondial. Pour autant, il serait hâtif de parler de reprise. D’une part, les pertes de PIB par tête, d’une ampleur exceptionnelle, ne seront pas effacées à court terme. D’autre part, la situation macroéconomique demeure fragile. Les banques subiront de nouvelles pertes, liées cette fois-ci à la dégradation de l’activité. Les surcapacités de production freineront l’investissement des entreprises. La baisse de la richesse et la persistance du chômage pèseront sur la consommation des ménages. Enfin, le soutien massif apporté par les gouvernements s’épuisera progressivement tandis que la tentation de réduire la dette pourrait venir amputer la demande. Dans ces conditions, les pressions déflationnistes seraient toujours à l’oeuvre.

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Paper provided by Sciences Po in its series Open Access publications from Sciences Po with number info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h4e3l8tb6.

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Date of creation: 26 Oct 2009
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Publication status: Published in Lettre de l'OFCE (2009-10-26) v., p.-
Handle: RePEc:ner:sciepo:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h4e3l8tb6

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