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Civil Wars and International Trade

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Author Info

  • Thoenig, Mathias

    (Centre Universitaire d'Informatique)

  • Martin, Philippe

    (Département d'économie)

  • Mayer, Thierry

    (Département d'économie)

Abstract

This paper analyzes empirically the relationship between civil wars and international trade. We first show that trade destruction due to civil wars is very large and persistent and increases with the severity of the conflict. We then identify two effects that trade can have on the risk of civil conflicts: it may act as a deterrent if trade gains are put at risk during civil wars but it may also act as an insurance if international trade provides a substitute to internal trade during civil wars. We find support for the presence of these two mechanisms and conclude that trade openness may deter the most severe civil wars (those that destroy the largest amount of trade) but may increase the risk of lower scale conflicts.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Sciences Po in its series Open Access publications from Sciences Po with number info:hdl:2441/10149.

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Date of creation: Apr 2008
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Publication status: Published in Journal of the European Economic Association (2008-04) v.6, p.541-550
Handle: RePEc:ner:sciepo:info:hdl:2441/10149

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References

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  1. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 593, Boston College Department of Economics.
  2. S. Brock Blomberg & Gregory D. Hess, 2006. "How Much Does Violence Tax Trade?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 599-612, November.
  3. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler & Dominic Rohner, 2009. "Beyond greed and grievance: feasibility and civil war," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(1), pages 1-27, January.
  4. Paul Collier & Dominic Rohner, 2008. "Democracy, Development, and Conflict," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 531-540, 04-05.
  5. Martin, Philippe & Mayer, Thierry & Thoenig, Mathias, 2005. "Make Trade not War?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5218, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2004. "Economic determinants of free trade agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 29-63, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Bosker, Maarten & de Ree, Joppe, 2010. "Ethnicity and the spread of civil war," CEPR Discussion Papers 8055, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Ksoll, Christopher & Macchiavello, Rocco & Morjaria, Ameet, 2010. "The Effect of Ethnic Violence on an Export-Oriented Industry," CEPR Discussion Papers 8074, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Maystre, Nicolas & Olivier, Jacques & Thoenig, Mathias & Verdier, Thierry, 2009. "Product-Based Cultural Change: Is the Village Global?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7438, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Rohner, D. & Thoenig, M. & Zilibotti, F., 2011. "War Signals: A Theory of Trade, Trust and Conflict," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1136, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  5. Cagatay Bircan & Tilman Brück & Marc Vothknecht, 2010. "Violent Conflict and Inequality," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1013, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  6. Thierry Verdier, 2010. "Regional Integration, Fragility and Institution Building: An Analytical Framework Applied to the African Context," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 38, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
  7. Mathieu Couttenier & Raphael Soubeyran, 2010. "Civil War in a Globalized World: Diplomacy and Trade," Working Papers 10-02, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier, revised Feb 2010.
  8. Andreas Freytag & Daniel Meierrieks & Angela Münch & Friedrich Schneider, 2010. "Patterns of Force: System Strength, Terrorism and Civil War," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 28, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  9. Nicolas Berman, Mathieu Couttenier, 2012. "External shocks, internal shots - the geography of civil conflicts," IHEID Working Papers 13-2012, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  10. Mathieu COUTTENIER & Raphael SOUBEYRAN, 2011. "Diplomatic Intervention in Civil War : Trade for All or Trade for One?," Working Papers 11-08, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier, revised Apr 2011.
  11. Vincenzo Bove & Leandro Elia & Petros G. Sekeris, 2013. "U.S. Security Strategy and the Gains from Bilateral Trade," Working Papers 1302, University of Namur, Department of Economics.
  12. Stéphane Auray & Aurélien Eyquem & Frédéric Jouneau-Sion, 2009. "Riots, Battles and Cycles," Cahiers de recherche 09-01, Departement d'Economique de la Faculte d'administration à l'Universite de Sherbrooke, revised 05 Apr 2009.

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