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On measuring synchronization of bulls and bears: the case of East Asia

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  • Candelon, Bertrand

    (Maastricht University)

  • Piplack, Jan

    (Maastricht University)

  • Straetmans, Stefan

    (Maastricht University)

Abstract

This paper implements estimation and testing procedures for comovements of stock market "cycles" or "phases" in Asia. We extend the Harding and Pagan [Harding, D., Pagan, A.P., 2006. Synchronization of cycles. Journal of Econometrics 132 (1), 59-79] test for strong multivariate nonsynchronization (SMNS) between business cycles to a test that allows for an imperfect degree of multivariate synchronization between stock market cycles. Moreover, we propose a test for endogenously determining structural change in the bivariate and multivariate synchronization indices. Upon applying the technique to five Asian stock markets we find a significant increase in the cross country comovements of Asian bullish and bearish periods in 1997. A power study of the stability test suggests that the detected increase in comovement is more of a sudden nature (i.e. contagion or "Asian Flu") instead of gradual (i.e. financial integration). It is furthermore argued that stock market cycles and their propensity toward (increased) synchronization contain useful information for both investors, policy makers and financial regulators.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Maastricht University in its series Open Access publications from Maastricht University with number urn:nbn:nl:ui:27-23215.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Publication status: Published in Journal of banking & finance (2008) v.32, p.1022-1035
Handle: RePEc:ner:maastr:urn:nbn:nl:ui:27-23215

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Web page: http://www.maastrichtuniversity.nl/web/Home.htm

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