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How do epidemics induce behavioral changes?

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  • Boucekkine, Raouf

Abstract

This paper develops a theory of optimal fertility behavior under mortality shocks. In an OLG model, young adults determine their optimal fertility, labor supply and life-cycle consumption with both exogenous child and adult mortality risks. We show that a rise in adult mortality exerts an ambiguous effect on both net and total fertility in a general equilibrium framework, while child mortality shocks unambiguously lead to a rise in total fertility, leaving net fertility unchanged. We complement our theory with an empirical analysis using a sample of 39 Sub-Saharan (SSA) countries over the 1980-2004 period, examining the overall effects of the child and adult mortality channels on both total and net fertility. We find child mortality to exert a robust, positive impact on total fertility but no impact on net fertility, whereas a rise in adult mortality is found to negatively influence both total and net fertility, whereas a rise in adult mortality is found to negatively influence both total and net fertility. Given the particular demographic profile of the HIV/AIDS epidemic (killing essentially young, active adults), we then conclude in favor of an ambiguous negative effect of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on net fertility in SSA.

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Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain in its series Open Access publications from Université catholique de Louvain with number info:hdl:2078.1/28499.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Economic Growth (2009) v.14, p.233-264
Handle: RePEc:ner:louvai:info:hdl:2078.1/28499

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