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Welfare effects of alternative financing of social security. Some calculations for Belgium

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  • Capéau, Bart
  • Decoster, André
  • De Swerdt, Kris
  • Orsini, Kristian

Abstract

We analyse the distributional impact of lowering social security contributions and compensating the revenue loss by an increase in indirect taxes. We empirically assess the distributional consequences of this shift by using two Belgian microsimulation models: modété for the tax benefit system, and aster for the indirect tax part. Since the underlying micro database of the tax benefit system does not contain expenditures, we first impute detailed expenditures in the income data survey, by means of semiparametric Engelcurves. The currently living generation of pensioners belongs to the losers by such a reform: They do not profit from the reduced tax on labour income, but pay higher consumption prices. Less obvious, also part of the working population loses. Even not all those who leave unemployment after the reform are gainers. We also investigate the sensitivity of the results w.r.t. the choice of welfare measure to assess the combined change in disposable income, consumer prices and - in the case of exible labour supply - leisure. We show how the specific choice and parameters of the welfare measure will influence the conclusions, possibly even more than the predictive model for assessing the behavioural reactions in labour supply.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Katholieke Universiteit Leuven in its series Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven with number urn:hdl:123456789/196761.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ner:leuven:urn:hdl:123456789/196761

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  1. Buscher, Herbert S. & Buslei, Hermann & Goggelmann, Klaus & Koschel, Henrike & Schmidt, Tobias F. N. & Steiner, Viktor & Winker, Peter, 2001. "Empirical macro models under test. A comparative simulation study of the employment effects of a revenue neutral cut in social security contributions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 455-474, August.
  2. Richard Blundell & Alan Duncan & Julian McCrae & Costas Meghir, 2000. "The labour market impact of the working families’ tax credit," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 75-103, March.
  3. Ian Walker & Ian Preston, 1999. "Welfare measurement in labour supply models with nonlinear budget constraints," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 343-361.
  4. Dagsvik, John K, 1994. "Discrete and Continuous Choice, Max-Stable Processes, and Independence from Irrelevant Attributes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(5), pages 1179-1205, September.
  5. repec:bla:restud:v:72:y:2005:i:1:p:57-76 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2003. "Discrete Hours Labour Supply Modelling: Specification, Estimation and Simulation," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/20, New Zealand Treasury.
  7. Bohringer, Christoph & Boeters, Stefan & Feil, Michael, 2005. "Taxation and unemployment: an applied general equilibrium approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 81-108, January.
  8. Creedy, John & Duncan, Alan, 2002. " Behavioural Microsimulation with Labour Supply Responses," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 1-39, February.
  9. Kristian Orsini, 2006. "Is Belgium 'making work pay'?," Center for Economic Studies - Discussion papers ces0605, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën.
  10. Arthur van Soest, 1995. "Structural Models of Family Labor Supply: A Discrete Choice Approach," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30(1), pages 63-88.
  11. King, Mervyn A., 1983. "Welfare analysis of tax reforms using household data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 183-214, July.
  12. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2005. "Measuring Welfare Changes In Labour Supply Models," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(6), pages 664-685, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Francesco Figari & Paulus, A. (Alari), 2012. "GINI DP 28: The impact of indirect taxes and imputed rent on inequality: A comparison with cash transfers and direct taxes in five EU countries," GINI Discussion Papers 28, AIAS, Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Labour Studies.
  2. Decoster, André & De Swerdt, Kris & Orsini, Kristian, 2008. "A Belgian flat income tax: effects on labour supply and income distribution," Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven urn:hdl:123456789/196767, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.

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