Unemployment in the European Union : a dynamic reappraisal
Abstract
This paper examines the movements in EU unemployment from two perspectives: (a) the NRU/NAIRU perspective, in which unemployment movements are attributed largely to changes in the long-run equilibrium unemployment rate and (b) the chain-reaction perspective, in which unemployment movements are viewed as the outcome of the interplay between labor market shocks and prolonged lagged adjustment processes. We present an empirical analysis that distinguishes between unemployment movements arising from long-run equilibrium changes and those arising from lagged intertemporal adjustments. This analysis has far-reaching policy implications. Our analysis shows that the rise in EU unemployment over the 1970s and first part of the 1980s was due largely to permanent shocks (especially the rise in working-age population and the decline in capital formation), whereas the unemployment increase in the first part of the 1990s was due largely to temporary shocks (especially the fall in competitiveness and the rise in real interest rates).Download Info
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.Bibliographic Info
Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Open Access publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy with number info:hdl:10419/2933.Length:
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Economic modelling (2003) v.20, p.237-273
Handle: RePEc:ner:ifwkie:info:hdl:10419/2933
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.ifw-kiel.de
Related research
Keywords: Arbeitslosigkeit; Natürliche Arbeitslosigkeit; Schock; Erwerbspersonenpotenzial; EU-Staaten;Other versions of this item:
- Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis, 2003. "Unemployment in the European Union: a dynamic reappraisal," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 237-273, March.
- Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis J. Snower, 2002. "Unemployment in the European Union: A Dynamic Reappraisal," Working Papers 480, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis J., 2002. "Unemployment in the European Union: A Dynamic Reappraisal," IZA Discussion Papers 531, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- J32 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits; Private Pensions
- J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - General
- J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
- E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987.
"Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem,"
NBER Working Papers
1950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis And The European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," Working papers 427, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Bertola, Giuseppe, 1990. "Job security, employment and wages," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 851-879, June.
- Pesaran, H. & Smith, R. & Im, K.S., 1995. "Dynamic Linear Models for Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9503, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999.
"Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1222, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Peter C. B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1057-1112, September.
- Olivier Blanchard & Justin Wolfers, 1999.
"The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence,"
NBER Working Papers
7282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages C1-33, March.
- Bentolila, S. & Saint-Paul, G., 1992.
"A Model of Labour Demand with Linear Adjustment Costs,"
DELTA Working Papers
92-05, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Bentolila, Samuel & Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1994. "A model of labor demand with linear adjustment costs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 303-326, September.
- Bentolila, S. & Saint-Paul, G., 1995. "A model of labour demand with linear adjustment costs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 105-105, March.
- Bentolila, Samuel & Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1992. "A Model of Labour Demand with Linear Adjustment Costs," CEPR Discussion Papers 690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Karanassou, Marika & Snower, Dennis J., 1998.
"How Labour Market Flexibility Affects Unemployment: Long-Term Implications of the Chain Reaction Theory,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1826, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Karanassou, Marika & Snower, Dennis J, 1998. "How Labour Market Flexibility Affects Unemployment: Long-Term Implications of the Chain Reaction Theory," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 832-49, May.
- Harris, Richard D. F. & Tzavalis, Elias, 1999.
"Inference for unit roots in dynamic panels where the time dimension is fixed,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 201-226, August.
- Tom Doan, . "HTUNIT: RATS procedure to implement Harris-Tzavalis unit root test for panel data," Statistical Software Components RTS00092, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995.
"Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Francesco Daveri & Guido Tabellini, 2000.
"Unemployment, growth and taxation in industrial countries,"
Economic Policy,
CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 47-104, 04.
- Daveri, Francesco & Tabellini, Guido, 1997. "Unemployment, Growth and Taxation in Industrial Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1681, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Francesco Daveri & Guido Tabellini, . "Unemployment, Growth and Taxation in Industrial Countries," Working Papers 122, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Karanassou, Marika & Snower, Dennis J., 1997.
"Is the natural rate a reference point?,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 559-569, April.
- Karanassou, Marika & Snower, Dennis J., 1996. "Is the Natural Rate a Reference Point?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1507, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marika Karanassou & Dennis Snower, 1996. "Is the Natural Rate a Reference Point?," Archive Discussion Papers 9623, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
- Karanassou, Marika & Snower, Dennis J., 2002.
"Unemployment Invariance,"
IZA Discussion Papers
530, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Marika Karanassou & Dennis J. Snower, 2004. "Unemployment Invariance," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(3), pages 297-317, 08.
- Marika Karanassou & Dennis J. Snower, 2002. "Unemployment Invariance," Working Papers 476, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003.
"Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
- Tom Doan, . "IPSHIN: RATS procedure to implement Im, Pesaran and Shin panel unit root test," Statistical Software Components RTS00098, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Donald Robertson & James Symons, 1991.
"Some Strange Properties of Panel Data Estimators,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0044, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Robertson, D & Symons, J, 1992. "Some Strange Properties of Panel Data Estimators," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 175-89, April-Jun.
- Banerjee, Anindya, 1999. " Panel Data Unit Roots and Cointegration: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 607-29, Special I.
- Lindbeck, Assar & Snower, Dennis J., 1987. "Union activity, unemployment persistence and wage-employment ratchets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 157-167.
- repec:wop:humbsf:1996-65 is not listed on IDEAS
- Baltagi, Badi H. & Griffin, James M., 1997. "Pooled estimators vs. their heterogeneous counterparts in the context of dynamic demand for gasoline," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 303-327, April.
- Kiviet, Jan F., 1995.
"On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July.
- Tom Doan, . "LSDVC: RATS procedure to estimate a dynamic FE model with correction for bias," Statistical Software Components RTS00111, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
- Wolfgang HÄRDLE & J. MARRON & L. YANG, 1996. "Discussion," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1996,65, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Badi H. Baltagi & Chihwa Kao, 2000. "Nonstationary Panels, Cointegration in Panels and Dynamic Panels: A Survey," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 16, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
- Edmund Phelps & Gylfi Zoega, 2001. "Structural booms," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 83-126, 04.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.
Lists
This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ner:ifwkie:info:hdl:10419/2933For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Contact person).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

