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Forecasting world and regional aviation Jet-Fuel demands to the mid term (2025)

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  • Chevallier, Julien
  • Chèze, Benoît
  • Gastineau, Pascal

Abstract

This article provides jet fuel demand projections at the worldwide level and for eight geographical zones until 2025. Air traffic forecasts are performed using dynamic panel-data econometrics. Then, the conversion of air traffic projections into quantities of jet fuel is accomplished by using a complementary approach to the ‘Traffic Efficiency’ method developed previously by the UK Department of Trade and Industry to support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1999). According to our main scenario, air traffic should increase by about 100% between 2008 and 2025 at the world level, corresponding to a yearly average growth rate of 4.7%. World jet fuel demand is expected to increase by about 38% during the same period, corresponding to a yearly average growth rate of 1.9% per year. According to these results, energy efficiency improvements allow reducing the effect of air traffic rise on the increase in jet fuel demand, but do not annihilate it. Jet fuel demand is thus unlikely to diminish unless there is a radical technological shift, or air travel demand is restricted.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université Paris-Dauphine in its series Open Access publications from Université Paris-Dauphine with number urn:hdl:123456789/6792.

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Date of creation: Sep 2011
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Publication status: Published in Energy Policy (2011-09) v.39, p.5147-5158
Handle: RePEc:ner:dauphi:urn:hdl:123456789/6792

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Keywords: Energy efficiency; Jet fuel demand forecasts; Macro-level methodology;

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Cited by:
  1. Benoît Chèze & Julien Chevallier & Pascal Gastineau, 2012. "Will technological progress be sufficient to stabilize CO2 emissions from air transport in the mid-term?," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-35, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.

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