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National borders matter...where one draws the lines too

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Author Info

  • Vicard, Vincent
  • Lavallée, Emmanuelle

Abstract

De nombreux articles récents montrent que le passage d’une frontière politique réduit fortement les échanges. L’augmentation du nombre de frontières et ses conséquences pour le commerce international n’ont pas fait l’objet de la même attention dans la littérature. Le nombre d' Etats souverains a pourtant augmenté de 72 en 1948 à 192 aujourd’hui. Cet article estime l’effet de la désintégration politique sur la mesure de la croissance du commerce mondial depuis la seconde guerre mondiale. Notre analyse souligne d’abord que les statistiques commerciales doivent être traitées avec prudence lorsque l’on mesure l’évolution du degré de mondialisation, car la définition des partenaires commerciaux varie dans le temps. Il en résulte un biais statistique important, qui explique 17% de la croissance du commerce international depuis 1948. Nous montrons ensuite que l’augmentation du nombre d’ Etats souverains seule a entrainé une augmentation du commerce international mesuré de 9%, mais a en réalité diminué les échanges (incluant le commerce interrégional) de 4%.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université Paris-Dauphine in its series Open Access publications from Université Paris-Dauphine with number urn:hdl:123456789/3785.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Publication status: Published in Canadian Journal of Economics (2013) v.46, p.135-153
Handle: RePEc:ner:dauphi:urn:hdl:123456789/3785

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Related research

Keywords: Trade; Commerce; Frontières; Trade Statistics; Political Disintegration; Borders;

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  1. Guillaume HORNY & Matteo PICCHIO, 2009. "Identification of Lagged Duration Dependence in Multiple Spells Competing Risks Models," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2009001, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  2. Cette, G. & Lopez, J., 2009. "ICT Demand Behaviour: an International Comparison," Working papers 252, Banque de France.
  3. Renne, J-P., 2009. "Frequency-domain analysis of debt service in a macro-finance model for the euro area," Working papers 261, Banque de France.
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Increasing trade by creating more borders
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2010-05-07 14:09:00
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Cited by:
  1. Lavallée, Emmanuelle & Lochard, Julie, . "Independence and trade: new evidence from French colonial trade data," Open Access publications from Université Paris-Dauphine urn:hdl:123456789/10246, Université Paris-Dauphine.
  2. Lavallée, Emmanuelle & Lochard, Julie, . "Independence and trade: the specic effects of French colonialism," Open Access publications from Université Paris-Dauphine urn:hdl:123456789/9564, Université Paris-Dauphine.

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