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Choix d'investissement sous incertitude des gestionnaires des réseaux de distribution (GRD) en Europe à l'horizon 2030

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  • Andaluz-Alcazar, Alvaro
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    Abstract

    La distribution reste le segment du secteur de l’électricité le moins étudié. Mais les débats s’animent autour d’elle depuis deux ou trois ans quant aux changements structurels possibles du fait notamment de l’émergence amorcée ou annoncée des smart technologies: ils pourraient en effet remettre en cause dans les prochaines années les modèles d’affaires actuels des GRD et leur mode de régulation. Mais de nombreuses incertitudes pèsent sur leurs choix d’investissements. La thèse vise à anticiper les évolutions des modèles d’affaires des GRD en Europe à l’horizon 2030 en tenant compte des paramètres technologiques, macroéconomiques et géographiques. Elle propose une vision théorique et analytique originale, en introduisant tout d’abord la notion de « technologies à potentiel naturel » pour étudier le développement optimal de différentes technologies par contexte géographique et par scénario de référence. A partir de ces résultats, elle définit alors différentes évolutions possibles des activités de la distribution. Le croisement de ces futurs avec les différentes stratégies d’investissement envisageables pour les GRD permet de définir les futurs modèles d’affaires des GRD européens en fonction des combinaisons de smart technologies déployées et des contextes géographiques contrastés. Dans sa dernière partie, la thèse s’intéresse tout particulièrement aux changements prévisibles dans la relation GRD / régulateur sectoriel via une formalisation par la théorie des jeux. Enfin, en s’appuyant notamment sur les études théoriques de Brian Arthur, la thèse identifie les différents effets lock-in qui pourraient entraver l’émergence des smart technologies et les solutions possibles.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Université Paris-Dauphine in its series Open Access publications from Université Paris-Dauphine with number urn:hdl:123456789/10862.

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    Length: 333
    Date of creation: Oct 2012
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    Publication status: Published
    Handle: RePEc:ner:dauphi:urn:hdl:123456789/10862

    Note: Dissertation
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    Web page: http://www.dauphine.fr/en/welcome.html

    Related research

    Keywords: DSO; lock-in; regulation; smart technologies; distribution networks; electricity networks; Industrial organization; GRD; Système électrique; Régulation; Réseaux de distribution;

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