Outlier-Robust ECM Cointegration Tests Based on the Trend Components
AbstractThe main goal of this paper is to analyze the behavior of the ECM non-cointegration test when there are additive outliers in the time series under different co-breaking situations. We show that the critical values of the usual ECM test are not robust to the presence of transitory shocks and we suggest a procedure based on signal extraction to bypass this problem. These procedure renders ECM tests with a left tail of distribution under the null that is robust to the presence of additive outliers in the series. The small sample critical values and the empirical power of the test are analyzed by Monte Carlo simulations for several low frequency filters. The proposed empirical methodology is applied to the CPI-based US/Finland real exchange rate.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Universidad Carlos III de Madrid in its series Open Access publications from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid with number info:hdl:10016/2574.
Length: 268 p.
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Spanish Economic Review (2004) v. 6, p.243-266
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Web page: http://www.uc3m.es
Outliers - transitory; co-breaks - cointegration; testing - trend-component error correction models;
Other versions of this item:
- Miguel Arranz & Alvaro Escribano, 2004. "Outliers - robust ECM cointegration tests based on the trend components," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 243-266, December.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
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