Time-Dependent Portfolio Adjustment: Yet Another Look at the Dynamics
AbstractThe interest semi-elasticity of money demand has been a long standing puzzle in the monetary economics literature. Researchers consistently have estimated low short-run semi-elasticities, usually around 1, and high long-run semi-elasticities of 10. Given the crucial role of interest semi-elasticity in determining the welfare costs of inflation and the effectiviness of tax cuts, we must understand why these short- and long-run estimates are so different. To explore this issue, I formulate and estimate a model of the demand for money that simultaneously accounts for low short- and high long-run semi-elasticities. In my formulation, re-balancing money holdings between money for purchases and money for financial investment is costly. I model this re-balancing cost by assuming that households re-optimize their money holdings subject to an exogenous probability. In the log-linearized version of my model, velocity depends on both its own past value and households' present and future expectations of the interest rate. I use this equilibrium condition to estimate my model's parameters by employing generalized method of moments. My estimates for the short-run and long-run interest semi-elasticities are 0.96 and 12.62, respectively. When I apply my model of money demand to explain the increase in the volatility of real balances after 1980, my model indicates that the late-1970s financial innovations, which facilitated portfolio re-balancing, lie behind this rise.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by North Carolina State University, Department of Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 006.
Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2006
Date of revision: Aug 2006
Interest Semi-Elasticity of Money Demand; Time-Dependent Portfolio Adjustment; Volatility; GMM.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-08-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2006-08-26 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FIN-2006-08-26 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2006-08-26 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-MAC-2006-08-26 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2006-08-26 (Monetary Economics)
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