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Tests of Multifactor Pricing Models, Volatility Bounds and Portfolio Performance

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  • Wayne E. Ferson

Abstract

Three concepts: stochastic discount factors, multi-beta pricing and mean variance efficiency, are at the core of modern empirical asset pricing. This paper reviews these paradigms and the relations among them, concentrating on conditional asset pricing models where lagged variables serve as instruments for publicly available information. The different paradigms are associated with different empirical methods. We review the variance bounds of Hansen and Jagannathan (1991), concentrating on extensions for conditioning information. Hansen's (1982) Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) is briefly reviewed as an organizing principle. Then, cross-sectional regression approaches as developed by Fama and MacBeth (1973) are reviewed and used to interpret empirical factors, such as those advocated by Fama and French (1993, 1996). Finally, we review the multivariate regression approach, popularized in the finance literature by Gibbons (1982) and others. A regression approach, with a beta pricing formulation, and a GMM approach with a stochastic discount factor formulation, may be considered competing paradigms for empirical work in asset pricing. This discussion clarifies the relations between the various approaches. Finally, we bring the models and methods together, with a review of the recent conditional performance evaluation literature, concentrating on mutual funds and pension funds.

Suggested Citation

  • Wayne E. Ferson, 2003. "Tests of Multifactor Pricing Models, Volatility Bounds and Portfolio Performance," NBER Working Papers 9441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9441
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    Cited by:

    1. Fukuta, Yuichi & Yamane, Akiko, 2015. "Value premium and implied equity duration in the Japanese stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 102-121.
    2. Ferson, Wayne E., 2013. "Investment Performance: A Review and Synthesis," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 969-1010, Elsevier.
    3. Da, Zhi & Guo, Re-Jin & Jagannathan, Ravi, 2012. "CAPM for estimating the cost of equity capital: Interpreting the empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 204-220.
    4. Luis Ferruz Agudo & Maria Vargas Magallon & Jose Sarto, 2006. "Evaluation of performance and conditional information: the case of Spanish mutual funds," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(11), pages 803-817.
    5. Abel, Ernest & Fletcher, Jonathan, 2004. "An empirical examination of UK emerging market unit trust performance," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 389-408, December.
    6. Leal, Laura Simonsen & Almeida, Caio, 2017. "An SDF Approach to Hedge Funds' Tail Risk:Evidence from Brazilian Funds," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 37(1), May.
    7. Bardong, Florian & Bartram, Söhnke M. & Yadav, Pradeep K., 2005. "Informed Trading, Information Asymmetry and Pricing of Information Risk: Empirical Evidence from the NYSE," MPRA Paper 13586, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Oct 2008.
    8. Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs & Gregory Vainberg, 2007. "Forward-Looking Betas," CREATES Research Papers 2007-39, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    9. Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Sufana, R., 2010. "International money and stock market contingent claims," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1727-1751, December.
    10. Francesca Molinari, 2020. "Microeconometrics with Partial Identification," Papers 2004.11751, arXiv.org.
    11. Chrétien, Stéphane, 2012. "Bounds on the autocorrelation of admissible stochastic discount factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1943-1962.
    12. Bo-Young Chang & Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs & Gregory Vainberg, 2011. "Option-Implied Measures of Equity Risk," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 16(2), pages 385-428.
    13. André, Eric, 2014. "Optimal portfolio with vector expected utility," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 50-62.
    14. Romilda Mazzotta & Stefania Veltri, 2014. "The relationship between corporate governance and the cost of equity capital. Evidence from the Italian stock exchange," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 18(2), pages 419-448, May.
    15. Fletcher, Jonathan, 2014. "Benchmark models of expected returns in U.K. portfolio performance: An empirical investigation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 30-46.
    16. Fletcher, Jonathan & Kihanda, Joseph, 2005. "An examination of alternative CAPM-based models in UK stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 2995-3014, December.
    17. Ferruz Agudo, Luis & Vargas Magallón, María & Nievas López, J., 2008. "¿Utilizan los gestores españoles de fondos de inversión información privada en sus labores de gestión?," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 26, pages 257-278, Septiembr.
    18. Jonathan Fletcher & Patricia Ntozi-Obwale, 2009. "Exploring the Conditional Performance of U.K. Unit Trusts," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 21-44, August.
    19. Ben Sita, Bernard, 2018. "Estimating the beta-return relationship by considering the sign and the magnitude of daily returns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 28-35.
    20. Romain Bocher, 2022. "The Intersubjective Markets Hypothesis," Journal of Interdisciplinary Economics, , vol. 34(1), pages 35-50, January.
    21. Sergey Iskoz & Jiang Wang, 2003. "How to Tell if a Money Manager Knows More?," NBER Working Papers 9791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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