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The Impact of Unionization on Establishment Closure: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis of Representation Elections

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John DiNardo
David S. Lee

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Abstract

Using data on more than 27,000 establishments (1983-1999) in the United States, this paper produces estimates of the causal effect of unionization of employer closure by exploiting the fact that most employers become 'unionized' as a partial consequence of a secret ballot election among the workers. If employers where unions barely won the election (e.g. by one vote) are ex ante comparable in all other ways to employers where unions barely lost (by one vote), differences in their subsequent outcomes should represent the true impact of union recognition. The regression discontinuity analysis finds little or no union effect on short- and long-run employer survival rates over 1- to 18-year horizons. We thus conclude that evidence of large effects of unions would more likely be found 1) along the within-employer (intensive margin) of employment and/or 2) in analyses of union threat effects.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8993.

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Date of creation: Jun 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8993

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J0 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General
J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  6. David S. Lee, 2002. "Trimming for Bounds on Treatment Effects with Missing Outcomes," NBER Technical Working Papers 0277, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Boal, William M & Pencavel, John, 1994. "The Effects of Labor Unions on Employment, Wages, and Days of Operation: Coal Mining in West Virginia," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 267-98, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Heckman, James J, 1979. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2002. "Estimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers on College Enrollment: A Regression-Discontinuity Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(4), pages 1249-1287, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Abowd, John M & Lemieux, Thomas, 1993. "The Effects of Product Market Competition on Collective Bargaining Agreements: The Case of Foreign Competition in Canada," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 983-1014, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Robert J. Lalonde & Gérard Marschke & Kenneth Troske, 1996. "Using Longitudinal Data on Establishments to Analyze the Effects of Union Organizing Campaigns in the United States," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ADRES, issue 41-42, pages 08, Janvier-J. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Torberg Falch & Bjarne Strøm, 2004. "Wage Bargaining and Monopsony," Working Paper Series 4304, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Scott Adams & David Neumark, 2005. "The Effects of Living Wage Laws: Evidence from Failed and Derailed Living Wage Campaigns," NBER Working Papers 11342, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. David Lee & Alexandre Mas, 2009. "Long-Run Impacts of Unions on Firms: New Evidence from Financial Markets, 1961-1999," NBER Working Papers 14709, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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