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Columbus' Egg: The Real Determinant of Capital Structure

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Ivo Welch

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Abstract

This paper shows that managers fail to readjust their capital structure in response to external stock returns. Thus, the typical firm's capital structure is not caused by attempts to time the market, by attempts to minimize taxes or bankruptcy costs, or by any other attempts at firm-value maximization. Instead, capital structure is almost entirely determined by lagged stock returns (which, when applied to ancient equity values, predict current equity value and with it debt equity ratios). Consequently, one should conclude that capital structure is determined primarily by external stock market influences, and not by internal corporate optimizing decisions.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8782.

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Date of creation: Feb 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8782

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G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1998. "Learning from the Behavior of Others: Conformity, Fads, and Informational Cascades," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 151-70, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1995. " What Do We Know about Capital Structure? Some Evidence from International Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1421-60, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1991. " The Theory of Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 297-355, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Michael J. Barclay & Clifford W. Smith & Ross L. Watts, 1995. "The Determinants Of Corporate Leverage And Dividend Policies," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 7(4), pages 4-19. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hayne E. Leland, 1998. "Agency Costs, Risk Management, and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1213-1243, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2001. "The theory and practice of corporate finance: evidence from the field," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 187-243, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Samuelson, William & Zeckhauser, Richard, 1988. " Status Quo Bias in Decision Making," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 7-59, March.
  8. Shlomo Benartzi & Roni Michaely & Richard Thaler, 1997. "Do Changes in Dividends Signal the Future or the Past?," CRSP working papers 455, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
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  9. Alan Schwartz & Joel Watson, 2000. "Economic and Legal Aspects of Costly Recontracting," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2000-05, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2002. "Market Timing and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 1-32, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. John R. Graham & Michael L. Lemmon & James S. Schallheim, 1998. "Debt, Leases, Taxes, and the Endogeneity of Corporate Tax Status," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 131-162, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Fischer, Edwin O & Heinkel, Robert & Zechner, Josef, 1989. " Dynamic Capital Structure Choice: Theory and Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 19-40, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch, 2002. "An Economic Approach to the Psychology of Change: Amnesia, Inertia, and Impulsiveness," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 379-421, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Anderson, Ronald W & Carverhill, Andrew, 2005. "A Model of Corporate Liquidity," CEPR Discussion Papers 4994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Peter Gibbard & Ibrahim Stevens, . "Corporate debt and financial balance sheet adjustment: a comparison of the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany," Bank of England working papers 317, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ehrhardt, David & Irwin Timothy, 2004. "Avoiding customer and taxpayer bailouts in private infrastructure projects : Policy toward leverage, risk allocation, and bankruptcy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3274, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Peter MacKay & Gordon M. Phillips, 2002. "Is There an Optimal Industry Financial Structure?," NBER Working Papers 9032, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Gabrielle Wanzenried, 2003. "Capital Structure Inertia and CEO Compensation," Diskussionsschriften dp0305, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft. [Downloadable!]
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