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Product Prices and the OECD Cycle

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  • Aart Kraay
  • Jaume Ventura

Abstract

It is well known that business cycles in OECD countries exhibit a remarkable degree of synchronization. Much less known is that the peak of the OECD cycle is associated with high prices of labour-intensive products and low prices of capital-intensive ones. We document this cyclical behavior of product prices and argue that it offers an important clue as to why business cycles are so synchronized. Positive shocks in one or more countries raise the prices of labour-intensive products and, as a result, the demand for labour throughout the industrialized world. This generates increases in wages, employment and output in all industrial countries. Through this channel, shocks are positively transmitted across countries, creating a force towards the synchronization of business cycles.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7788.

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Date of creation: Jul 2000
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Publication status: published as Kraay Aart & Ventura Jaume, 2002. "Product Prices and the OECD Cycle," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-18, April.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7788

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  1. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 93-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  2. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2001. "Comparative Advantage and the Cross-section of Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 8104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Keyu Jin, 2009. "International business cycles with heterogeneous sectors," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 25828, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  2. Ellen McGrattan, 2001. "Predicting the effects of Federal Reserve policy in a sticky price model: an analytical approach," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  3. Robert J. Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2000. "Closed and Open Economy Models of Business Cycles with Marked Up and Sticky Prices," NBER Working Papers 8043, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Alejandro Cuñat & Marco Maffezzoli, . "Heckscher-Ohlin Business Cycles," Working Papers 210, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.

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