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Macroeconomic Volatility in Latin America: A View and Three Case Studies

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  • Ricardo J. Caballero

Abstract

After decades of trial, error, and occasional regress the pieces of a successful Latin American economic model can be seen scattered among the leading economies of the region. The most traditional macroeconomic maladies of the emerging world - such as chronic fiscal imbalances and monetary gimmicks are gradually being left behind. Many of these economies have made significant progress in their regulatory and supervisory frameworks and, at times, have been leaders beyond Latin American boundaries in allowing private sector co-participation in a wide array of ex-public sector activities. Despite these significant efforts, several structural sources of volatility remain, and new ones have emerged as a result of the new and otherwise better economic environment. In this paper I review these sources through the recent experiences of Argentina, Chile and Mexico.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7782.

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Date of creation: Jul 2000
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Publication status: published as Ricardo J.Caballero, 2001. "Macroeconomic volatility in Latin America: a view and three case studies," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 28(1 Year 20), pages 5-52, June.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7782

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  1. Rafael LaPorta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, . "Law and Finance," Working Paper 19451, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  2. Gelos, R. Gaston & Werner, Alejandro M., 2002. "Financial liberalization, credit constraints, and collateral: investment in the Mexican manufacturing sector," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 1-27, February.
  3. Ricardo J. Caballero, 2000. "Structural Volatility in Argentina: A Policy Report," Research Department Publications 4213, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  4. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2000. "International Liquidity Management: Sterilization Policy in Illiquid Financial Markets," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1700, Econometric Society.
  5. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 1998. "Emerging Market Crises: An Asset Markets Perspective," NBER Working Papers 6843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Philippe Aghion & Abhijit Banerjee & Thomas Piketty, 1999. "Dualism And Macroeconomic Volatility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1359-1397, November.
  7. Bulow, J. & Rogoff, K., 1988. "Sovereign Debt: Is To Forgive To Forget?," Papers 411, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  8. Ricardo J. Caballero, 2000. "Structural Volatility in Mexico: A Policy Report," Research Department Publications 4209, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  9. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1991. "The Perils of Sterilization," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(4), pages 921-926, December.
  10. Peter M. Garber, 1998. "Derivatives in International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 6623, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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