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Valuation and Return Dynamics of New Ventures

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  • Jonathan B. Berk
  • Richard C. Green
  • Vasant Naik

Abstract

We develop and analyze a model of a multi-stage investment project that captures many features of R&D ventures and start-up companies. An important feature these problems share is that the firm learns about the potential profitability of the project throughout its life, but that research and development effort itself is only resolved through additional investment by the firm. In addition, the risks associated with the ultimate cash flows the firm realizes on completion of the project have a systematic component, while the purely technical risks are idiosyncratic. Our model captures these different sources of risk, and allows us to study their interaction in determining the risk premia earned by the venture during development. Our results show that the systematic risk, and the required risk premium, of the venture are highest early in its life, and decrease as it approaches completion, despite the idiosyncratic nature of the technical risk.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6745.

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Date of creation: Oct 1998
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6745

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  1. Weitzman, Martin L, 1979. "Optimal Search for the Best Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 641-54, May.
  2. Sudipto Bhattacharya and Dilip Mookherhee., 1984. "Portfolio Choice in Research and Development," Research Program in Finance Working Papers 147, University of California at Berkeley.
  3. Pindyck, Robert S., 1993. "Investments of uncertain cost," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 53-76, August.
  4. Gene M. Grossman & Carl Shapiro, 1988. "Optimal Dynamic R&D Programs," NBER Working Papers 1658, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Majd, Saman & Pindyck, Robert S., 1987. "Time to build, option value, and investment decisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 7-27, March.
  6. Dasgupta, Partha & Maskin, Eric, 1987. "The Simple Economics of Research Portfolios," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(387), pages 581-95, September.
  7. Dutta, Prajit K., 1997. "Optimal management of an R&D budget," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 575-602.
  8. Martin L. Weitzman & Whitney Newey & Michael Rabin, 1981. "Sequential R&D Strategy for Synfuels," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 12(2), pages 574-590, Autumn.
  9. Pakes, Ariel S, 1986. "Patents as Options: Some Estimates of the Value of Holding European Patent Stocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(4), pages 755-84, July.
  10. Gruver, Gene W., 1991. "Optimal R&D policy for a patent race with uncertain duration," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 69-85, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Didier Cossin & Benoît Leleux & Entela Saliasi, 2002. "Understanding the Economic Value of Legal Covenants in Investment Contracts: A Real-Options Approach to Venture Equity Contracts," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series rp63, Swiss Finance Institute.
  2. Smit, Han T.J. & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2006. "Real options and games: Competition, alliances and other applications of valuation and strategy," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 95-112.

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