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Tariff Phase-Outs: Theory and Evidence from GATT and NAFTA

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Carsten Kowalczyk
Donald Davis

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Abstract

This paper considers tariff phase-outs in multilateral and preferential agreements. The paper finds that early GATT rounds primarily were over bindings of existing rates and that it was not until the 1962-67 Kennedy Round's 50% reduction in manufactured goods tariffs that time paths of tariff reductions became a substantive part of GATT agreements. Existing empirical work has demonstrated that U.S. industries with high initial tariffs tended to receive long periods for tariff adjustment or tended to be exempted from agreed reductions in both the Kennedy and Tokyo Rounds. This paper demonstrates that high U.S. tariffs and little intra-industry trade are associated with long NAFTA phase-out periods for U.S. imports from Mexico. Mexico's phase-outs are correlated, on the other hand, with those of the United States but not generally with Mexico's tariffs.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5421.

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Date of creation: Jan 1996
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5421

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hatta, Tatsuo & Fukushima, Takashi, 1979. "The welfare effect of tariff rate reductions in a many country world," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 503-511, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Ernesto Stein & Shang-Jin Wei, 1993. "Continental Trading Blocs: Are They Natural, or Super-Natural?," NBER Working Papers 4588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. G. K. Helleiner, 1977. "The Political Economy of Canada's Tariff Structure: An Alternative Model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 10(2), pages 318-26, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. McMillan, John & McCann, Ewen, 1981. "Welfare Effects in Customs Unions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(363), pages 697-703, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Trefler, Daniel, 1993. "Trade Liberalization and the Theory of Endogenous Protection: An Econometric Study of U.S. Import Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 138-60, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kowalczyk, Carsten & Sjostrom, Tomas, 1994. "Bringing GATT into the Core," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 61(243), pages 301-17, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Bond, E.W. & Syropoulos, C., 1993. "Optimality and Stability of Regional Trading Blocs," Discussion Papers 93-11, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
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  8. Bale, Malcolm D., 1977. "United States concessions in the Kennedy Round and short-run labour adjustment costs : Further evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 145-148, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Kyle Bagwell & Robert Staiger, 1994. "Multilateral Tariff Cooperation During the Formation of Regional Free Trade Areas," International Trade 9410001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1993. "Is Japan Creating a Yen Bloc in East Asia and the Pacific?," NBER Chapters, in: Regionalism and Rivalry: Japan and the United States in Pacific Asia, pages 53-88 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Kowalczyk, Carsten, 1989. "Trade Negotiations and World Welfare," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 552-59, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. John Kennan & Raymond Riezman, 1990. "Optimal Tariff Equilibria with Customs Unions," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 23(1), pages 70-83, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Paul Krugman, 1989. "Is Bilateralism Bad?," NBER Working Papers 2972, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Cheh, John H., 1974. "United States concessions in the Kennedy Round and short-run labor adjustment costs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 323-340, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Richardson, Martin, 1995. "Tariff revenue competition in a free trade area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 1429-1437, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Jong-Wha Lee & Phillip Swagel, 1994. "Trade barriers and trade flows across countries and industries," International Finance Discussion Papers 476, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  17. Lopez, Ramon & Panagariya, Arvind, 1992. "On the Theory of Piecemeal Tariff Reform: The Case of Pure Imported Intermediate Inputs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 615-25, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Kemp, Murray C. & Wan, Henry Jr., 1976. "An elementary proposition concerning the formation of customs unions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 95-97, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Levy, Philip I, 1997. "A Political-Economic Analysis of Free-Trade Agreements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 506-19, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Fukushima, Takashi & Kim, Namdoo, 1989. "Welfare improving tariff changes : A case of many goods and countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 383-388, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hideo Konishi & Carsten Kowalczyk & Tomas Sjostrom, 2003. "Free Trade, Customs Unions, and Transfers," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 568, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Carsten Kowalczyk & Raymond Riezman, 2009. "Trade Agreements," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  3. Freund, Caroline, 2003. "Reciprocity in free trade agreements," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3061, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Iacovone, Leonardo, 2009. "The better you are the stronger it makes you : evidence on the asymmetric impact of liberalization," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4930, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Michael W. Klein & Scott Schuh & Robert K. Triest, 2002. "Job creation, job destruction, and international competition: job flows and trade: the case of NAFTA," Working Papers 02-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  6. Alejandro Castañeda, 2003. "Mexican manufacturing markups: procyclical behavior and the impact of trade liberalization," Economia Mexicana NUEVA EPOCA, , vol. 0(2), pages 209-230, July-Dece. [Downloadable!]
  7. Arvind Panagariya, 2003. "The Regionalism Debate: An Overview," International Trade 0309007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Robert C. Feenstra, 1997. "U.S. Exports, 1972-1994: With State Exports and Other U.S. Data," NBER Working Papers 5990, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Antoni Estevadeordal & Caroline Freund & Emanuel Ornelas, 2008. "Does Regionalism Affect Trade Liberalization Towards Non-Members?," CEP Discussion Papers dp0868, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
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  10. M. Ayhan Kose & Guy Meredith & Christopher M. Towe, 2004. "How Has NAFTA Affected the Mexican Economy? Review and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 04/59, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Borders, Trade and Welfare," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 508, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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