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What Have Macroeconomists Learned about Business Cycles from the Study of Seasonal Cycles?

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Author Info
Jeffrey A. Miron
J. Joseph Beaulieu

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Abstract

This paper argues that analysis of seasonal fluctuations can shed light on the nature of business cycle fluctuations. The fundamental reason is that in many instances identifying restrictions about seasonal fluctuations are more believable than analogous restrictions about non-seasonal fluctuations. We show that seasonal fluctuations provide good examples of preference shifts and synergistic equilibria. We also find evidence against production smoothing and in favor of unmeasured variation in labor and capital utilization. In some industries capacity constraints appear to bind.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5258.

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Date of creation: Sep 1995
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5258

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. J. Joseph Beaulieu & Jeffrey K. MacKie-Mason & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1991. "Why Do Countries and Industries with Large Seasonal Cycles Also Have Large Business Cycles?," NBER Working Papers 3635, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Cooper, Russell & Haltiwanger, John, 1993. "The Aggregate Implications of Machine Replacement: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 360-82, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Jeffrey A. Miron & Stephen P. Zeldes, . "Seasonality, Cost Shocks and the Production Smoothing Model of Inventories," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 01-87, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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  4. Cooper, Russell W. & Haltiwanger, John Jr., 1992. "Macroeconomic implications of production bunching : Factor demand linkages," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 107-127, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Alan S. Blinder, 1984. "Can The Production Smoothing Model of Inventory Behavior be Saved?," NBER Working Papers 1257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Anil Kashyap & David Wilcox, 1995. "Why Firms Smooth Seasonals in a Boom," Working Papers 001, Ohio State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Martin S. Eichenbaum, 1990. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Production Level and Production Cost Smoothing Models of Inventory Investment," NBER Working Papers 2523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Krane, Spencer & Wascher, William, 1999. "The cyclical sensitivity of seasonality in U.S. employment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 523-553, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Ghysels, E., 1986. "A Study Towards a Dynamic Theory of Seasonality for Economic Time Series," Cahiers de recherche 8612, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  10. Cooper, Russell & Haltiwanger, John, 1996. "Evidence on Macroeconomic Complementarities," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 78-93, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. J. Joseph Beaulieu & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1991. "A Cross Country Comparison of Seasonal Cycles and Business Cycles," Papers 0011, Boston University - Industry Studies Programme.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. van Dijk, Dick & Strikholm, Birgit & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2001. "The effects of institutional and technological change and business cycle fluctuations on seasonal patterns in quarterly industrial production series," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 0429, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 16 May 2002. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Giuseppe Russo & David Veredas, 2000. "Institutional Rigidities and Employment on the Italian Labour Market: the Dynamic of the Employment in the Large Industrial Firms," CELPE Discussion Papers 53, CELPE (Centre of Labour Economics and Economic Policy), University of Salerno, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  3. D R Osborn & A Matas-Mir, 2003. "The Extent of Seasonal/Business Cycle Interactions in European Industrial Production," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 38, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ahdi Ajmi & Adnen Ben Nasr & Mohamed Boutahar, 2008. "Seasonal Nonlinear Long Memory Model for the US Inflation Rates," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 243-254, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Wen, Yi, 2002. "What Does It Take to Explain Procyclical Productivity," Working Papers 02-14, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ravi Jagannathan & Yong Wang, 2005. "Consumption Risk and the Cost of Equity Capital," NBER Working Papers 11026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. D R Osborn & A Matas-Mir, 2001. "Does Seasonality Change over the Business Cycle? An Investigation using Monthly Industrial Production Series," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 09, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Candelon, Bertrand & Dupuy, Arnaud & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2008. "The Nature of Occupational Unemployment Rates in the United States: Hysteresis or Structural?," IZA Discussion Papers 3571, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Raimundo Soto, 2000. "Ajuste Estacional e Integración en Variables Macroeconómicas," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 73, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Yi Wen, 2005. "By force of demand: explaining international comovements and the saving-investment correlation puzzle," Working Papers 2005-043, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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