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Strategic Trading in a Two-Sided Foreign Exchange Auction

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  • Linda Goldberg
  • Rafael Tenorio

Abstract

The market microstructure chosen for foreign exchange markets can influence trading volumes and equilibrium exchange rates. With emerging markets and developing countries increasingly utilizing two- sided auctions, we show that the choice of the discrete 'tƒtonnement' auction creates incentives for strategic behavior among market participants. We provide theoretical predictions on strategic under- revelation of demand or supply positions that are supported empirically using detailed data from a rare example of a tƒtonnement market, the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange. Our results also are consistent with findings from experimental work on auctions: new entrants altered strategic behavior mainly on the market's demand side, without comparable implications for the supply side. We also show that bids and offers were influenced by fundamentals and specific policy measures.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5187.

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Date of creation: Jul 1995
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Publication status: published as Journal of International Economics, 1997, vol.42/3-4.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5187

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References

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  1. Walker, Donald A, 1972. "Competitive Tatonnement Exchange Markets," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 345-63.
  2. Jeremy Bulow & Paul Klemperer, 1991. "Rational Frenzies and Crashes," NBER Technical Working Papers 0112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Tenorio, Rafael, 1993. "Revenue Equivalence and Bidding Behavior in a Multi-unit Auction Market: An Empirical Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(2), pages 302-14, May.
  4. Holt, Charles A & Langan, Loren W & Villamil, Anne P, 1986. "Market Power in Oral Double Auctions," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(1), pages 107-23, January.
  5. Smith, Vernon L, 1982. "Markets as Economizers of Information: Experimental Examination of the "Hayek Hypothesis"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 20(2), pages 165-79, April.
  6. William Vickrey, 1961. "Counterspeculation, Auctions, And Competitive Sealed Tenders," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 16(1), pages 8-37, 03.
  7. Schmeidler, David, 1980. "Walrasian Analysis via Strategic Outcome Functions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(7), pages 1585-93, November.
  8. Arto Kovanen, 1994. "Foreign Exchange Auctions and Fixing," IMF Working Papers 94/119, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Linda S. Goldberg, 1993. "Foreign Exchange Markets in Russia: Understanding the Reforms," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(4), pages 852-864, December.
  10. Goldberg, Linda S. & Karimov, Il'dar, 1997. "Black markets for currency, hoarding activity and policy reforms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 349-369, May.
  11. Rajnish Mehra & Robert Alan Feldman, 1993. "Auctions," IMF Working Papers 93/12, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2008. "Local information in foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1383-1406, December.
  2. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2007. "Whose trades convey information? Evidence from a cross-section of traders," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-357, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  3. Evans, Martin D. & Lyons, Richard K., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance, Working Paper Series qt0dh1c16w, Research Program in Finance, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  4. Goldberg, Linda S. & Karimov, Il'dar, 1997. "Black markets for currency, hoarding activity and policy reforms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 349-369, May.

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