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The Competitive Crash in Large-Scale Commercial Computing

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Author Info
Timothy F. Bresnahan
Shane Greenstein

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Abstract

We examine the factors underlying buyer demand for large Information Technology solutions in order to understand the competitive crash in large scale commercial computing. We examine individual buyer data from two periods. The first is in the mid 1980's, late in the period of a mature and stable large-systems market. The other period is in the early 1990's, very early in the diffusion of a new, competitive technology, client/server, when many buyers chose to wait for the new technology to mature. We clarify the implications of different theories of the competitive crash and then test them. The most popular theories are far wrong, while the correct view emphasizes the 'internal' adjustment costs to organizations making IT investments. Understanding buyer behavior not only illuminates the competitive crash, but also the factors underlying the slow realization of the social gains to Information Technology in large complex applications more generally.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4901.

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Date of creation: Oct 1994
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4901

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  1. Trajtenberg, M. & Bresnahan, T.F., 1992. "General Purpose Technologies: "Engines of Growth"," Papers 16-92, Tel Aviv.
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  2. Joseph Farrell & Garth Saloner, 1985. "Installed Base and Compatibility With Implications for Product Preannouncements," Working papers 385, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  3. Bresnahan, Timothy F & Greenstein, Shane, 1999. "Technological Competition and the Structure of the Computer Industry," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 1-40, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Bresnahan, Timothy F, 1986. "Measuring the Spillovers from Technical Advance: Mainframe Computers inFinancial Services," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 742-55, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Henkel, Joachim & von Hippel, Eric, 2003. "Welfare Implications of User Innovation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4063, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Timothy F. Bresnahan & Franco Malerba, 1997. "Industrial Dynamics and the Evolution of Firms' and Nations' Competitive Capabilities in the World Computer Industry," Working Papers 97030, Stanford University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Shane M. Greenstein & Mercedes M. Lizardo & Pablo T. Spiller, 1997. "The Evolution of Advanced Large Scale Information Infrastructure in the United States," NBER Working Papers 5929, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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