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Short-Run Independence of Monetary Policy Under Pegged Exchange Rates and Effects of Money on Exchange Rates and Interest Rates

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  • Alan C. Stockman
  • Lee E. Ohanian

Abstract

Economists generally assert that countries sacrifice monetary independence when they peg their exchange rates. At the same time, central bankers frequently assert that pegging an exchange rate does not eliminate the independence of monetary policy. This paper examines the effects of money-supply changes on exchange rates, interest rates, and production in an optimizing two-country model in which some sectors of the economy have predetermined nominal prices in the short run and other sectors have flexible prices. Money-supply shocks have liquidity effects both within and across countries and induce a cross-country real-interest differential. The model predicts that liquidity effects are highly non-linear and are not likely to be captured well empirically by linear models, particularly those involving only a single country. The most striking implication of the model is that countries have a degree of short-run independence of monetary policy even under pegged exchange rates.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4517.

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Date of creation: Nov 1993
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Publication status: published as Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 29, no. 4, part 1, pp. 783-806, November 1997.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4517

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  1. Mussa, Michael, 1982. "A Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 74-104, February.
  2. Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989. "The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission," Working Papers 89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  3. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 1987. "Monopolistic Competition and the Effects of Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 647-66, September.
  4. Charles Engel, 1991. "Is real exchange rate variability caused by relative price changes? An empirical investigation," Research Working Paper 91-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  5. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  6. Lars E.O. Svensson & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1987. "Excess Capacity, Monopolistic Competition, and International Transmission of Monetary Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1984. "A Monetary Equilibrium Model with Transactions Costs," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(1), pages 40-58, February.
  8. Grossman, Sanford & Weiss, Laurence, 1983. "A Transactions-Based Model of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 871-80, December.
  9. Svensson, Lars E O, 1986. "Sticky Goods Prices, Flexible Asset Prices, Monopolistic Competition, and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 385-405, July.
  10. Cumby, Robert E. & Huizinga, John, 1991. "The predictability of real exchange rate changes in the short and long run," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 17-38, April.
  11. Alan C. Stockman, 1992. "International Transmission Under Bretton Woods," NBER Working Papers 4127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Stockman, Alan C. & Stockman, Alan C., 1983. "Real exchange rates under alternative nominal exchange-rate systems," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 147-166, August.
  13. Alan C. Stockman, 1978. "A Theory of Exchange Rate Determination," UCLA Economics Working Papers 122, UCLA Department of Economics.
  14. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1990. "Liquidity and interest rates," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 237-264, April.
  15. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
  16. Huizinga, John, 1987. "An empirical investigation of the long-run behavior of real exchange rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 149-214, January.
  17. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
  18. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
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