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How Pervasive is the Product Cycle? The Empirical Dynamics of American and Japanese Trade Flows

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  • Joseph E. Gagnon
  • Andrew K. Rose

Abstract

This paper looks for dynamic patterns in international trade flows using comprehensive multilateral American and Japanese data disaggregated to the four-digit SITC level. Little evidence is found of product-cycle dynamics between 1962 and 1988. Rather, goods that begin the sample in surplus (deficit) almost always remain in surplus (deficit) throughout the sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph E. Gagnon & Andrew K. Rose, 1992. "How Pervasive is the Product Cycle? The Empirical Dynamics of American and Japanese Trade Flows," NBER Working Papers 3946, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3946
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    1. J. Finger, 1975. "A new view of the product cycle theory," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 111(1), pages 79-99, March.
    2. Grossman, Gene M & Helpman, Elhanan, 1991. "Endogenous Product Cycles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(408), pages 1214-1229, September.
    3. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Innovation, Technology Transfer, and the World Distribution of Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(2), pages 253-266, April.
    4. Raymond Vernon, 1966. "International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 80(2), pages 190-207.
    5. Vernon, Raymond, 1979. "The Product Cycle Hypothesis in a New International Environment," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 41(4), pages 255-267, November.
    6. Deardorff, Alan V., 1984. "Testing trade theories and predicting trade flows," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 467-517, Elsevier.
    7. M. V. Posner, 1961. "International Trade And Technical Change," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 323-341.
    8. Grossman, Gene M & Helpman, Elhanan, 1991. "Endogenous Product Cycles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(408), pages 1214-1229, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mika Saito, 2000. "The Empirical Investigation of The Kemp-Jones Model: The Case of OECD Countries," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1159, Econometric Society.
    2. Breuer, Janice Boucher & Clements, Leianne A., 2003. "The commodity composition of US-Japanese trade and the yen/dollar real exchange rate," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 307-330, August.

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