A Theory of War Finance
AbstractThis paper analyzes the financial and war-spending policies of a state that faces a war in which defeat would result in the loss of sovereign power and in which the material consequences, conditional on avoiding defeat, are stochastic. The analysis takes explicit account of the historical experiences of lenders, who face debt repudiation if the state to whom they have lent is defeated and who also face partial default if the material consequences of the war are unfavorable for the debtor state, even if it avoids defeat. In this analysis, the state uses war debt to smooth expected consumption intertemporally in response to temporary war spending, and the state also uses contingent debt servicing to insure realized consumption against the risk associated with the material consequences of the war.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3799.
Date of creation: Aug 1991
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Defence Economics, Vol. 4, pp. 33-44, (1993).
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Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
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- Herschel I. Grossman & John B. Van Huyck, 1985.
"Sovereign Debt as a Contingent Claim: Excusable Default, Repudiation, and Reputation,"
NBER Working Papers
1673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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- Garber, Peter M., 1991.
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Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier,
Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 79-104, January.
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- Herschel I. Grossman, 1988. "The Political Economy of War Debts and Inflation," NBER Working Papers 2743, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carlos Pestana Barros & Todd Sandler, 2003. "Internal and external threats: Defence economic analysis," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 385-388.
- Vincent Medina & Cyr-Denis Nidier, 2003. "Pricing war within a real option framework," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 425-435.
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