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Stock Prices, News, and Business Conditions

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  • Grant McQueen
  • V. Vance Roley
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    Abstract

    Previous research finds that fundamental macroeconomic news has little effect on stock prices. This study shows that after allowing for different stages of the business cycle, a stronger relationship between stock prices and news is evident. In particular, the empirical results suggest that the effect of news about real economic activity depends on the varying responses of expected cash flows relative to equity discount rates. When the economy is strong, for example, the stock market responds negatively to good news about real economic activity, reflecting the larger effect on discount rates relative to expected cash flows.

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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w3520.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3520.

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    Date of creation: Nov 1990
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    Publication status: published as Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 6, no. 3 (1993): 683-707.
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3520

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    1. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation and the Stock Market," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 186-198 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Pearce, Douglas K & Roley, V Vance, 1988. " Firm Characteristics, Unanticipated Inflation, and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 965-81, September.
    3. Douglas K. Pearce & V. Vance Roley, 1985. "Stock Prices and Economic News," NBER Working Papers 1296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "What Moves Stock Prices?," NBER Working Papers 2538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1987. "Macroeconomic information and stock prices," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 131-140, May.
    6. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
    7. Hakkio, Craig S. & Pearce, Douglas K., 1992. "Discount rate policy under alternative operating procedures: An empirical investigation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 55-72.
    8. Schwert, G William, 1981. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to Information about Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 15-29, March.
    9. V. Vance Roley, 1982. "The Response of Short-Term Interest Rates to Weekly Money Announcements," NBER Working Papers 1001, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Kaul, Gautam, 1987. "Stock returns and inflation : The role of the monetary sector," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 253-276, June.
    11. Geske, Robert & Roll, Richard, 1983. " The Fiscal and Monetary Linkage between Stock Returns and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-33, March.
    12. Ferson, Wayne E. & Merrick, John Jr., 1987. "Non-stationarity and stage-of-the-business-cycle effects in consumption-based asset pricing relations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 127-146, March.
    13. Smirlock, Michael J & Yawitz, Jess B, 1985. " Asset Returns, Discount Rate Changes, and Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1141-58, September.
    14. V. Vance Roley & Carl E. Walsh, 1983. "Monetary Policy Regimes, Expected Inflation, and the Response of Interest Rates to Money Announcements," NBER Working Papers 1181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. V. Vance Roley & Rick Troll, 1984. "The impact of discount rate changes on market interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Jan, pages 27-39.
    16. Roley, V Vance, 1983. "The Response of Short-Term Interest Rates to Weekly Money Announcements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(3), pages 344-54, August.
    17. Cook, Timothy & Hahn, Thomas, 1988. "The Information Content of Discount Rate Announcements and Their Effect on Market Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(2), pages 167-80, May.
    18. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-65, September.
    19. Nelson, Charles R, 1976. "Inflation and Rates of Return on Common Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 471-83, May.
    20. Pearce, Douglas K & Roley, V Vance, 1983. " The Reaction of Stock Prices to Unanticipated Changes in Money: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(4), pages 1323-33, September.
    21. Gibbons, Michael R & Hess, Patrick, 1981. "Day of the Week Effects and Asset Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 579-96, October.
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