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Precautionary Saving and the Marginal Propensity to Consume

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Author Info
Miles S. Kimball

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Abstract

The marginal propensity to consume out of wealth is important for evaluating the effects of taxation on consumption, assessing the possibility of multiple equilibria due to aggregate demand spillovers, and explaining observed variations in consumption. It is also a component of the interest elasticity of consumption and the risk aversion of the value function which gives the expected present value of utility as a function of wealth. This paper analyzes the effect of uncertainty on the marginal propensity to consume within the context of the Permanent Income Hypothesis. Given plausible conditions on the utility function, income risk is found to raise the marginal propensity to consume out of wealth in a multiperiod model with many risky securities. The marginal investment portfolio for additions to wealth is also characterized.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3403.

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Date of creation: Jul 1990
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3403

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Breeden, Douglas T., 1986. "Consumption, production, inflation and interest rates : A synthesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 3-39, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kihlstrom, Richard E & Romer, David & Williams, Steve, 1981. "Risk Aversion with Random Initial Wealth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 911-20, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Friend, Irwin & Blume, Marshall E, 1975. "The Demand for Risky Assets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 900-922, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Pratt, John W & Zeckhauser, Richard J, 1987. "Proper Risk Aversion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(1), pages 143-54, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Sanford J. Grossman & Angelo Melino & Robert J. Shiller, 1985. "Estimating the Continuous Time Consumption Based Asset Pricing Model," NBER Working Papers 1643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-65, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Grossman, Sanford J & Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 222-27, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Irwin Friend & Joel Hasbrouck, . "Effect of Inflation on the Profitability and Valuation of U.S. Corporations," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 4-82, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  10. Grossman, Sanford J. & Shiller, Robert J., 1982. "Consumption correlatedness and risk measurement in economies with non-traded assets and heterogeneous information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 195-210, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Robert E. Hall & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1982. "The Sensitivity of Consumption to Transitory Income: Estimates from Panel Data on Households," NBER Working Papers 0505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Barsky, Robert B & Mankiw, N Gregory & Zeldes, Stephen P, 1986. "Ricardian Consumers with Keynesian Propensities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 676-91, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Cantor, Richard, 1985. "The consumption function and the precautionary demand for savings," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 207-210. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Sandmo, Agnar, 1970. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Saving Decisions," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 353-60, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Miller, Bruce L., 1976. "The effect on optimal consumption of increased uncertainty in labor income in the multiperiod case," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 154-167, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Kimball, Miles S & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1989. "Precautionary Saving and the Timing of Taxes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 863-79, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Kimball, Miles S, 1988. "Farmers' Cooperatives as Behavior Toward Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 224-32, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Kimball, Miles S, 1990. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 53-73, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1986. "The equity premium and the concentration of aggregate shocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 211-219, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Irwin Friend & Joel Hasbrouck, . "Effect of Inflation on the Profitability and Valuation of U.S. Corporations," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 04-82, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  26. Sanford J. Grossman & Robert J. Shiller, 1982. "Consumption Correlatedness and Risk Measurement in Economies with Non trade Assets and Heterogeneous Information," NBER Working Papers 0690, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Douglas W. Elmendorf & Miles S. Kimball, 1996. "Taxation of labor income and the demand for risky assets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  28. Dreze, Jacques H. & Modigliani, Franco, 1972. "Consumption decisions under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 308-335, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. R. Kato & S. Nishiyama, 2002. "Optimal Monetary Policy When Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 8, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Douglas W. Elmendorf & Miles S. Kimball, 1996. "Taxation of labor income and the demand for risky assets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Joseph G. Eisenhauer & Luigi Ventura, 2006. "The prevalence of hyperbolic discounting: some European evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(11), pages 1223-1234, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Miles Kimball & Philippe Weil, 1992. "Precautionary Saving and Consumption Smoothing Across Time and Possibilities," NBER Working Papers 3976, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. David Bowman & Deborah Minehart & Matthew Rabin, 1994. "Loss aversion in a consumption/savings model," International Finance Discussion Papers 492, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  6. Christopher D. Carroll, 2000. ""RISKS HABITS” AND THE MARGINAL PROPENSITY TO CONSUME OUT OF PERMANENT INCOME, OR, HOW MUCH WOULD A PERMANENT TAX CUT BOOST JAPANESE CONSUMPTION?," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 1-40, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo & Simon Price, . "Financial liberalisation and consumers' expenditure: 'FLIB' re-examined," Bank of England working papers 157, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  8. Christopher D Carroll, . "Precautionary Saving and the Marginal Propensity To Consume Out of Permanent Income," Economics Working Paper Archive 445, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Miles S. Kimball, 1989. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," NBER Working Papers 2848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Miles S. Kimball, 1991. "Standard Risk Aversion," NBER Technical Working Papers 0099, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Luis M. Viceira, 1999. "Optimal Portfolio Choice for Long-Horizon Investors with Nontradable Labor Income," NBER Working Papers 7409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Christopher D. Carroll & Miles S. Kimball, 1995. "On the Concavity of the Consumption Function," Macroeconomics 9503003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo, . "Soft liquidity constraints and precautionary saving," Bank of England working papers 158, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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