Non-Cointegration and Econometric Evaluation of Models of Regional Shift and Share
AbstractThis paper tests for cointegration between regional output of an industry and national output of the same industry. An equilibrium economic theory is presented to argue for the plausibility of cointegration, however, regional economic forecasting using the shift and share framework often acts as if cointegration does not exist. Data analysis on broad industrial sectors for 20 states finds very little evidence for cointegration. Forecasting models with and without imposing cointegration are than constructed and used to forecast out of sample. The simplest, non-cointegrating models are the best.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3291.
Date of creation: Mar 1990
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-56, September.
- Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986.
"Hysteresis And The European Unemployment Problem,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," Working papers 427, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Working Papers 1950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ozgen Sayginsoy, 2005. "Powerful and Serial Correlation Robust Tests of the Economic Convergence Hypothesis," Econometrics 0503014, EconWPA, revised 11 Mar 2005.
- Carlino, Gerald A. & Mills, Leonard, 1996.
"Testing neoclassical convergence in regional incomes and earnings,"
Regional Science and Urban Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 565-590, December.
- Gerald Carlino & Leonard Mills, 1993. "Testing neoclassical convergence in regional incomes and earnings," Working Papers 93-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Peng Zhang & Mann Xu, 2011. "The View from the County: China's Regional Inequalities of Socio-Economic Development," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 12(1), pages 183-198, May.
- Robert P. Inman & Daniel L. Rubinfeld, 1991. "Fiscal Federalism in Europe: Lessons From the United States Experience," NBER Working Papers 3941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ozgen Sayginsoy, 2004. "Powerful and Serial Correlation Robust Tests of the Economic Convergence Hypothesis," Discussion Papers 04-07, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
- Loewy, Michael B. & Papell, David H., 1996. "Are U.S. regional incomes converging? Some further evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 587-598, December.
- Liang, Chyi-Lyi (Kathleen) & Feuz, Dillon M. & Taylor, R. Garth, 1997. "Cointegration Tests of Spatial and Variety Price Linkages in Regional Dry Bean Markets," 1997 Annual Meeting, July 13-16, 1997, Reno\Sparks, Nevada 35787, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.