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Non-Cointegration and Econometric Evaluation of Models of Regional Shift and Share

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Author Info
Scott J. Brown
N. Edward Coulson
Robert F. Engle

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Abstract

This paper tests for cointegration between regional output of an industry and national output of the same industry. An equilibrium economic theory is presented to argue for the plausibility of cointegration, however, regional economic forecasting using the shift and share framework often acts as if cointegration does not exist. Data analysis on broad industrial sectors for 20 states finds very little evidence for cointegration. Forecasting models with and without imposing cointegration are than constructed and used to forecast out of sample. The simplest, non-cointegrating models are the best.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3291.

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Date of creation: Mar 1990
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3291

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," Working papers 427, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  2. Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-56, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ozgen Sayginsoy, 2004. "Powerful and Serial Correlation Robust Tests of the Economic Convergence Hypothesis," Discussion Papers 04-07, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Robert P. Inman & Daniel L. Rubinfeld, 1991. "Fiscal Federalism in Europe: Lessons From the United States Experience," NBER Working Papers 3941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Ozgen Sayginsoy, 2005. "Powerful and Serial Correlation Robust Tests of the Economic Convergence Hypothesis," Econometrics 0503014, EconWPA, revised 11 Mar 2005. [Downloadable!]
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