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Non-Cointegration and Econometric Evaluation of Models of Regional Shift and Share

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  • Scott J. Brown
  • N. Edward Coulson
  • Robert F. Engle

Abstract

This paper tests for cointegration between regional output of an industry and national output of the same industry. An equilibrium economic theory is presented to argue for the plausibility of cointegration, however, regional economic forecasting using the shift and share framework often acts as if cointegration does not exist. Data analysis on broad industrial sectors for 20 states finds very little evidence for cointegration. Forecasting models with and without imposing cointegration are than constructed and used to forecast out of sample. The simplest, non-cointegrating models are the best.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3291.

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Date of creation: Mar 1990
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3291

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  1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," Working papers, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics 427, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  2. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  3. Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-56, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Ozgen Sayginsoy, 2004. "Powerful and Serial Correlation Robust Tests of the Economic Convergence Hypothesis," Discussion Papers, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics 04-07, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  2. Carlino, Gerald A. & Mills, Leonard, 1996. "Testing neoclassical convergence in regional incomes and earnings," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 565-590, December.
  3. Peng Zhang & Mann Xu, 2011. "The View from the County: China's Regional Inequalities of Socio-Economic Development," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 12(1), pages 183-198, May.
  4. Robert P. Inman & Daniel L. Rubinfeld, 1991. "Fiscal Federalism in Europe: Lessons From the United States Experience," NBER Working Papers 3941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Ozgen Sayginsoy, 2005. "Powerful and Serial Correlation Robust Tests of the Economic Convergence Hypothesis," Econometrics, EconWPA 0503014, EconWPA, revised 11 Mar 2005.
  6. Loewy, Michael B. & Papell, David H., 1996. "Are U.S. regional incomes converging? Some further evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 587-598, December.
  7. Liang, Chyi-Lyi (Kathleen) & Feuz, Dillon M. & Taylor, R. Garth, 1997. "Cointegration Tests of Spatial and Variety Price Linkages in Regional Dry Bean Markets," 1997 Annual Meeting, July 13-16, 1997, Reno\Sparks, Nevada, Western Agricultural Economics Association 35787, Western Agricultural Economics Association.

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